20251005

Government shutdown, and US provides intel for Ukrainian strikes, etc

 

What's In the News

Hello, and thanks for reading! We had a busy day out trap shooting, and I managed to hit 17 out of 30 clays, which is probably a record for me. We don’t normally even bother to keep track because there’s no point, but apparently, I was better this time around than in previous attempts, so I was a happy camper. We also hit an Austin FC soccer game. Austin FC lost against St. Louis, but it was a lot of fun nonetheless. ⚽️ 

For those in Infosec, I also did a keynote at Hou.Sec.Con, a conference I had spoken at 15 years ago, when it got started. I spoke on CVSS and how it relates to EPSS, Vulncheck KEV, CISA KEV, and others.

I got a lot of wonderful, and some quite funny, reactions from it, so it sounds like it was a success. As long as you're going to deliver bad news, it had better be funny, I suppose. I’ll post a link to it if the conference organizers release it.

I also did a book signing of AI’s Best Friend at the conference. There were around 100 people who lined up to get an autograph. Pretty amazing how many people are curious about AI and where things are going. It’s heartening, too, because a lot of people seem to really care about doing this right. They understand the downside if we don’t.

In Russian/Ukrainian news, Russia's Yaroslavl Oil Refinery, the fifth largest in the country and located 700km from the frontline, suffered a catastrophic explosion that set its VT-6 processing unit ablaze. The VT-6 unit, which processes over 124,000 barrels of oil per day, continues to burn, marking another Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure.

Ukrainian drone attacks have led to a historically unprecedented situation where 38% of Russia's refinery capacity was shut down. As a result, gasoline production in September fell by 1 million tons, causing a 20% deficit on the domestic market. Russian oil companies are struggling to mitigate the crisis, with repairs potentially taking months due to the impact of sanctions.

The FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, with a range of 3,000 km, poses a real threat to Russian infrastructure, especially given the demonstrated vulnerability of Russian air defenses to Ukrainian propeller drones, which have successfully struck targets up to 1,400 km away. This means the bulk of Russia is pretty available to attack, including oil and gas infrastructure well past the front, driving and even larger cost to the Russians who appear to already be targeting infrastructure as small as gas stations, medium-sized targets like two shadow tankers, as well as a large fuel depot closer to home in Crimea. It’s all a target now.

Speaking of refineries, the second largest Russian oil refinery, Kinef in Kirishi, Leningrad region, with a capacity of over 20 million tons per year and located 800 km from the front, also came under drone attack. During an earlier attack on September 14, the AVT-6 unit, accounting for 38% of the plant's capacity, was shut down.

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Russian missile ship Grad in Lake Onega, Republic of Karelia, as it was moving from the Baltic Sea to the Caspian Sea. The strike hit the starboard side of the ship's engine compartment, damaging one of Russia's newest and most modern vessels, commissioned into the Baltic Fleet in December 2022.

President Trump has authorized long-range strikes into Russia, although the Pentagon has previously withheld permission for Ukraine to carry them out. Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg emphasized that the President's orders should be followed, indicating a policy shift towards allowing Ukraine to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory. This will likely have a huge impact. Ukraine has the capability, but it lacks the necessary intelligence or authorization. The US could easily withhold arms if Ukraine used them in ways it did not approve, so this finally lets Ukraine off the chain, though, I suspect certain things are still off limits, like nuclear deterrence targets.

For the first time since the invasion began, the United States will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. President Trump signed an order directing the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to assist, with the U.S. also considering the delivery of Tomahawk and Barracuda Cruise Missiles and other long-range weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine's Chief of the General Staff, Andriy Hnatov, warned that Ukraine will find opportunities and weapons to cause a blackout in Moscow, signaling an escalation in response to Russian actions.

In response to drone attacks, the Russian oil refinery in Samara has been covered with an extensive array of anti-drone structures. When I look at this, all I can think of is that if the distance is known, a well-constructed shape charge could bypass the entire structure and target the jet of superheated metal exactly at the target it wanted to hit. It does require more precision, but still.

Additionally, a Ukrainian device designed to ensnare and break the fiber optic cables of Russian FPV drones uses a spinning concertina wire that operates intermittently for a minute at a time. The idea is that it can snag and ideally break the fragile glass interiors of the fiber optics used to drive these devices. Clever idea, but I really wonder if it would actually work or not. Also, given that there is an end that has to drive these systems, it feels super easy to target/destroy, so I feel like this is mostly a toy at the moment, but clever nonetheless. I think there is something here, but maybe not this specific design.

In bad news for Ukraine, Ukraine's ballistic missile interception rate dropped from 37% in August to just 6% in September 2025, as Russia upgraded its Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles with new software that enables them to evade Patriot interceptors through unpredictable flight patterns. We really need to solve this problem because it will impact us if we ever end up in a conflict with Russia or China.

The Ukrainian military received a batch of anti-material rifles, chambered in 12.7×114HL. This new caliber combines a .50 calibre bullet with an up-necked 14.5x114mm casing, utilizing a cast polymer casing with a metal base due to a shortage of traditional casings. Pretty clever solution to the limited amount of brass available. I do wonder if they manage to work without adding too much extra material into the barrel, as plastic does tend to melt at those temperatures, and the gases are likely not that great for the soldiers firing them.

In terms of the meat-waves, there hasn’t been a ton of talk about it lately. However, Putin has ordered the largest fall draft in recent history, conscripting an additional 135,000 soldiers, so much for seeking peace. 👎️ This is coming at the same time as one of the largest drone and ballistic and cruise missile attacks ever recorded.

In occupied Crimea, Russian authorities have imposed gasoline rations in Sevastopol, limiting purchases to 30 liters per car (around 8 gallons) across all grades of gasoline. That’s not a full tank for most cars, so it will limit driving, and that is likely the point. Belgorod is experiencing blackouts and relying on generators, which is exactly opposite to what Russia needs because that uses indeed more fuel. Further from the front, there are purportedly continuing long lines at gas stations along the M-12 Moscow-Kazan federal highway, with one filling station for every 150 km and reports of 130 cars waiting at one location.

I also saw a video of a US-made Stinger being used against a Shahed drone. While this is a bit odd, spending such a large dollar item designed to take down aircraft against a low-cost drone, it is probably one of the most capable systems out there. The nice thing about these crappy drones is that they have pretty easily detectable radar and often heat signatures, so older heat-seeking systems or radar guidance systems work great against them.

In European news, Germany has developed the GMARS, an upgraded version of the HIMARS, featuring double missile pods, an 8x8 chassis for enhanced mobility, and potential cruise missile capability by 2027, showcasing German engineering prowess.

A swarm of unidentified military-grade reconnaissance drones caused the temporary closure of Munich International Airport and disruptions at other German airports and military sites. The drones were launched by an unknown actor, right at the tail of Oktoberfest. 🥨 I am glad we were out of there by then! There are now laser systems around Munich being deployed.

Europe is set to receive the Kreuger 100, a low-cost mini-missile developed by the Swedish firm Nordic Air Defence to counter Putin's drones. The electric, kinetic weapon is safe for use in urban areas and could become a key component of the EU's air defense strategy. The best part? These things are reusable. You can see a video here.

In South East Asia news, there was a demo of swarm-based drone tech, where a single 20ft shipping container can hold a swarm of 720 drones and their launch system, a capacity that surpasses the combined tank fleets of Germany, France, and the UK.

On the flip side, in China, a drone light show in Liuyang went awry when hundreds of drones dropped fireworks prematurely, which fell and exploded into the crowd, causing a fire and demonstrating the potential dangers of drone technology for entertainment. But it also begs the question - what caused it? Was it an RF denial test or simply some faulty software that caused the fireworks to release too early or…? I’d really want to know the answer to that question if I were the Chinese military. Or any military.

In Middle East news, President Trump's comprehensive plan to end the Gaza conflict includes de-radicalizing the region, redeveloping it for the benefit of its people, and establishing a transitional governance structure. The plan outlines a staged withdrawal of Israeli forces, the release of hostages, prisoner exchanges, and the establishment of an International Stabilization Force to ensure security and facilitate redevelopment, aiming for a peaceful and prosperous Gaza. Of course, I am not a betting man, but I doubt the Gazans will accept this, which means it gives Trump air cover to give more aid to Israel, given that the Gazans did not choose peace.

In South of the border news, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the destruction of another suspected narco-terrorist vessel off the coast of Venezuela, marking the fourth such strike since August. The operation, carried out by U.S. Southern Command in international waters, resulted in the deaths of four males aboard the boat, which was claimed to be carrying a significant amount of drugs destined for the United States. If you are driving a speed boat in the Atlantic, pointing at the US, carrying a boat full of military-aged men, you may consider keeping your maritime beacon on and having a very visible flag… just saying.

In North America news, the Pentagon is urging missile manufacturers to increase production of 12 critical weapons, including Patriot interceptors and various missiles, by 2.5 times within 6-24 months, exploring options like private capital and licensing to meet the demand. That’s good news, and much closer to where we need to be to keep our stockpiles in shape as we continue to send many of these arms overseas to Ukraine and Israel.

YouTube paid President Trump $25 million for banning him and launched a pilot program to allow banned conservatives back on the platform. The move is seen as an attempt by Google to gain Trump's support in the AI race and protect itself from costly regulations abroad. YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, ABC News, and 60 Minutes have all paid President Trump significant sums for various actions against him, including account suspensions and defamation lawsuits, signaling a shift in the consequences of censorship and media bias.

The LDS church shooter, Thomas Jacob Sanford, and his family were very right-leaning conservatives, with Sanford's social media posts revealing his anti-LDS sentiments, calling Mormonism 'the antichrist'. He appears to have been suffering from PTSD and was killed at the scene.

Sanford, a former Marine who served in Iraq, rammed his truck into a church in Michigan, opened fire on worshippers, and set the sanctuary ablaze, killing four and injuring eight, though that number may change. Bomb squads later found improvised explosive devices at the scene. This is a bit of an odd situation of secular violence we don’t often see in the United States - Christians against Christians of a different faith. We saw a lot of this in Ireland and England in the last century, but not so much here in the United States. Either way, this is a good example of “right extremism” and is just as bad as any other kind when innocent people are getting killed while praying.

It’s hard to find a single non-biased article about the government shutdown, so forgive me on this section. While I was in Houston, I ran into three very vivacious NASA employees who were excited to explain, in an extremely upbeat way, that they were there on their own dime and that NASA had stopped paying them during the shutdown. I was a little spun around - their attitudes didn’t match the lack of money flowing into their pockets, but they seemed to care not one bit. Odd, right?

There is a lot going on here. Vital services will continue, but all of the other things won’t. The Republicans want, among other things, to make working in government as unattractive and unprofitable as possible, so that only critical functions exist. Trump wants to fire virtually all of them and get rid of services like ObamaCare. Democrats want more social services, which, on paper, means more spending. I think the simple reality here is that the pain will continue until an agreement can be made, and the Republicans have a lot of cards, both in terms of votes and the fact that they don’t care if the shutdown continues… at least until it becomes a political liability.

Speaking of political liability, there is a vote about releasing Epstein files that is being held over the head of Trump and/or the Republicans. Whether that is actually a stick or not is in question here. The important part is that it will only increase the delay if it is a stick, not decrease it. So it’s a weird card to play. I’m not sure why it’s coming up now instead of a month ago, when there were still cards to play to prevent the shutdown in the first place, but here we are! In some ways, it’s not the worst idea because either way the Democrats win, they claim that Republicans are delaying things to prevent the Epstein files release, or if the shutdown happens, they get the Epstein files released. I’m a fan of releasing them and have been since day 1, so either way, I hope that does happen.

That said, the House has passed a clean C.R. as of Sept 19th, so it’s not on the House anymore. It’s up to the Senate to get it passed and reopen the government at the moment, from what I can tell.

Trump is also a situation brewing where Trump has sent in California national guard into Portland. This feels a little too late, given the situation with CHAZ that unfolded during the George Floyd riots. There are already arrests being made though, so apparently there is action taking place. There is active footage of arrests of suspected Antifa as well. Gavin Newsom is suing to halt the movement of the national guard as a result and it looks like at least one judge has blocked Trump’s orders to deploy the National Guard. It’s a mess.

This week I spoke with a number of people who were former military or still serve about SECWAR’s speech and uniformly they all seemed happy with the results. At the top of the list of things people were happy to see was Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announcing new requirements for uniformed staff, mandating twice-yearly physical fitness tests and adherence to height and weight standards. There were many other anti-DEI mandates made, with the intention of shifting the military more towards a war-fighting stance and less towards accommodating people of all shapes and sizes, and more towards capability. It does make a lot of sense - I wouldn’t choose a weapon because it was weird or unique, I would choose it based on lethality. At least for front-line troops, we are wise to take a similar tactic.

Lastly, in 2A news, a federal judge declared the post office carry ban unconstitutional, granting summary judgment to the Second Amendment Foundation, Firearms Policy Coalition, and individual plaintiffs in the case, allowing postal workers to carry firearms. Postal jokes ensue!

In Tech news, ChatGPT's Task Completion Engine is now a reality, raising concerns about the platform stealing content, selling it via an API, and allowing transactions without driving traffic to the original websites. Merchants must apply to join the system, which could disadvantage small retailers. Basically, this is like Google’s AMP project for shopping - it means zero loyalty to your brand. People will only choose based on price and features, not anything about you or your brand.

Scientists have successfully created blastocyst-stage embryos by fertilizing human skin cells, forced to act like eggs, with real sperm, bringing the world closer to lab-made gametes and engineered reproduction. It will soon be very feasible for a single person to impregnate themselves, though that brings about all kinds of other genetic error issues. Or how about a male egg and a male sperm? Strange and interesting at the same time.

Okay, onto the articles!

Geopolitics

Russian drones pose a significant threat to Ukraine's nuclear safety and the European region, with President Zelenskyy warning of potential radiation incidents and the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant exacerbating security risks.

  • Russia is deliberately creating the threat of radiation incidents by launching over 20 Shahed drones against energy infrastructure in Slavutych, affecting Chernobyl's power supply and security.

  • The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, one of the biggest nuclear facilities in the world, has been significantly degraded in terms of security due to Russian occupation.

[RSnake: They sure do. But with a layered defense, the Ukrainians still stand a chance. They have done surprisingly well. So many military pundits were sure Ukraine would run out of men or arms well before now, and yet they persevere, and Russia’s economy is on its heels. It’s even having to buy fuel from China now.]

Source: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/10/02/zelenskyy-warns-russian-drones-endanger-safety-chernobyl-and-europes-biggest-nuclear-plant.html

A terrorist attack occurred at a synagogue in Manchester, UK on the holiest day in Judaism, Yom Kippur, resulting in two fatalities and three injuries, with authorities labeling it an anti-Semitic terror incident.

  • The attack on the synagogue was motivated by anti-Semitism, targeting a congregation during their most solemn observance, Yom Kippur.

  • The UK has seen a surge in antisemitic incidents in recent years, with the Community Security Trust reporting 1,521 incidents in the first half of 2025 alone.

[RSnake: This is on the rise for sure. More on the car attack and stabbing here and here.]

Source: https://sofrep.com/?p=218255

Hamas's military leader has rejected a new US ceasefire plan aimed at ending the Israel-Gaza conflict, perceiving it as a scheme to dismantle the group. The ongoing violence has resulted in a staggering number of casualties, with over 66,000 reported deaths in Gaza since the renewed hostilities began after an attack on Israel. Furthermore, trust is eroded between Hamas and Israel regarding any proposed troop withdrawals and the handling of hostages.

  • Hamas military leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad disagrees with the US ceasefire plan.

  • Over 66,000 deaths in Gaza have occurred since the recent escalation of the conflict.

  • Distrust prevails regarding Israel's commitments under the proposed ceasefire.

[RSnake: Color me shocked. I think there is still room for negotiation here, but I have no hope at all that the talks will end with Hamas willingly laying down arms. It will only happen as a last resort if at all.]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c708v2q5r09o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

President Trump has proposed a compact with universities requiring them to freeze tuition rates, limit foreign student enrollment and adhere to specific definitions of gender in exchange for substantial federal grants.

  • The compact would require universities to prohibit anything that punishes or belittles conservative ideas, and it would be unconstitutional because it tramples on the right to freedom of speech.

  • The proposal also includes requiring universities to have policies prohibiting specific actions or speech related to societal events, which could further marginalize transgender students and is likely illegal.

[RSnake: This is a little strong-handed, and I’m not sure it’s even economically viable for most Universities to go down this path. This would end up bankrupting Harvard almost assuredly. Others like A&M would probably be fine because they have made good investments.]

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/opinion/trump-compact-universities-constitution.html

In Nigeria, over 100,000 Christians have been killed since 2009 due to violence from Islamist groups, including Boko Haram. The U.S. government's response has been criticized for a lack of acknowledgment, particularly after Nigeria was removed from the State Department’s 'Country of Particular Concern' list. This situation has garnered attention from media personalities, spurring a conversation about the ongoing genocide and the media's failure to cover it adequately.

  • Boko Haram and other Islamist groups have perpetrated violence against Christians in Nigeria, resulting in significant casualties and destruction of churches.

  • The U.S. government has been criticized for its inadequate response to the ongoing genocide of Christians in Nigeria.

[RSnake: There is not much we can do other than help relocate them. They are outnumbered and outgunned.]

Source: https://www.dailywire.com/news/bill-maher-exposes-nigerias-christian-genocide-in-47-seconds

Iran's national currency, the rial, has undergone severe devaluation amid new international sanctions, leading to soaring inflation and a deepening economic crisis. Economic instability has led to widespread despair among citizens as essential goods and services become unaffordable, while a small elite profits from the economic turmoil.

  • Iran's rial has fallen dramatically against the US dollar, trading at over 1.18 million rials to one dollar.

  • The economic collapse is attributed to chronic budget deficits, reliance on oil, and institutional corruption.

  • Widespread inflation has caused essential goods, including food and medicine, to become unaffordable for the majority of the population.

[RSnake: This may or may not hurt enough to cause the local population to demand a regime change. For now, though, it doesn’t appear there is enough suffering to create that sort of desire amongst the people for meaningful reform.]

Source: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202510028157

The Pentagon is facing a crisis in missile stockpiles due to the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran, which have significantly depleted U.S. reserves and raised concerns about preparedness for future conflicts. To address this issue, the Pentagon is urging missile manufacturers to ramp up production to meet the demands of potential future warfare, particularly with nations such as China, while also seeking additional government commitments to ensure production support. The situation is further complicated by the extensive backlog created by recent conflicts and the need for funding to facilitate increased manufacturing capacity.

  • The Pentagon is alarmed by the depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles following indirect involvement in wars in Ukraine and Iran.

  • There are efforts to boost production of key missile systems, but manufacturers are concerned about the feasibility of meeting the ambitious targets without guaranteed government contracts.

[RSnake: Yep. That 2.5x increase will likely only get us to maintenance levels, not a real stockpile.]

Source: https://www.eurasiantimes.com/?p=253924

A magnitude six earthquake struck Afghanistan, killing approximately 2,200 people and destroying over 5,000 homes in Kunar province. The disaster has left thousands homeless and without access to basic necessities like food and water.

  • A magnitude 6 earthquake struck Afghanistan, killing approximately 2,200 people.

  • The earthquake destroyed over 5,000 homes in Kunar province.

[RSnake: Wow, that isn’t very good. Those poor people. It’s not like they have the same construction standards as we do here in the United States.]

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/longform/2025/10/5/when-stones-fell-from-the-sky-the-night-an-afghan-village-was-destroyed?traffic_source=rss

Fiji is experiencing a significant surge in HIV cases, with numbers reportedly increasing from fewer than 500 in 2014 to approximately 5,900 by 2024, primarily driven by intravenous drug use and unsafe sexual practices. The government has declared an HIV outbreak and noted challenging conditions for addressing the crisis, including resource shortages and a lack of effective surveillance and treatment systems.

  • Fiji's HIV cases have surged dramatically due to increased drug use and unsafe sexual practices.

  • The Fijian government has declared an HIV outbreak and recognizes significant barriers to addressing the growing crisis.

[RSnake: For all of those people on vacation… You may want to consider who you take out on a date and wrap that willy!]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0m42dwvlk8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

On October 4-5, Russia conducted a significant attack across multiple regions in Ukraine, targeting Lviv Oblast and resulting in civilian casualties, including a 15-year-old girl. Authorities launched a criminal investigation into potential violations of wartime laws due to the attack's impact on civilians and infrastructure.

  • Russia launched attacks in various regions of Ukraine, including Lviv Oblast.

  • The assault resulted in civilian deaths and injuries, prompting a criminal investigation.

[RSnake: You know, I am certain Russia knows they cannot target with any kind of accuracy, and therefore it may be an actual war crime. But also, they may be doing their best, which is to say, extremely poorly. I’m not sure what’s worse.]

Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/05/8001316/

The United States has initiated a major military deployment in the Caribbean targeting Venezuela's drug trafficking operations, particularly against the Cartel de los Soles, which is linked to President Nicolás Maduro's regime. U.S. forces have successfully disrupted key cocaine smuggling routes, leading to significant operational changes for the cartels, while Maduro has declared a state of emergency, citing threats of foreign aggression and possible military action against drug networks.

  • The U.S. military is engaged in efforts to dismantle Venezuela's major drug trafficking routes.

  • Maduro's regime is under increased pressure as U.S. operations threaten its financial stability.

[RSnake: I wonder how painful this is for Maduro directly. If he derives a lot of personal wealth from those drug sales, this might actually hurt him more than it appears outwardly, as those funds likely pay for loyalty elsewhere.]

Source: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/10/02/caribbean-route-shut-down-how-us-forces-hit-venezuelas-drug-network.html

France has detained a Russian oil tanker, believed to be part of a clandestine fleet, in an effort to disrupt funding for Russia's war in Ukraine. The action reflects a broader European strategy to increase pressure on Moscow, which has been accused of using such vessels to evade sanctions. Russian officials condemned the detention as an act of piracy, escalating tensions between France and Russia.

  • France detained the Boracay tanker to curb Russia's war financing.

  • Russian officials have labeled the detention a piracy act, raising the threat of increased confrontation.

[RSnake: More of these oil tankers should be caught and removed from the equation.]

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/2/france-detains-russian-shadow-tanker-to-disrupt-war-in-ukraine?traffic_source=rss

In Ladakh, recent protests for greater autonomy from India have escalated into deadly violence, resulting in the deaths of four civilians and over 80 injuries. The region, characterized by its diverse cultural identities, has seen a rise in discontent due to perceived broken promises regarding autonomy and job prospects since the revocation of its special status in 2019, leading to clashes between protestors and police amidst heightened security measures.

  • Protests for greater autonomy in Ladakh have resulted in violence and significant casualties.

  • Local frustration has grown due to perceived failures in promised political and economic reforms since 2019.

[RSnake: Interesting - a new mini nation forming perhaps?]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx25rrx89x4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

Youth-led protests in Morocco's Gen Z movement are against government corruption and poor public services, with two people killed after police opened fire on protesters.

  • Morocco’s unemployment rate stands at 12.8%, with youth unemployment soaring to 35.8% and 19% among graduates.

  • Protests have also hit the capital, Rabat, the main commercial city, Casablanca, and the port city of Tangier.

[RSnake: Wow, that’s pretty crazy - an unemployment rate that high will turn those people into dangerous people pretty quick. No wonder they’re upset. We have two choices - employ basically everyone or pay for them to live so that they don’t burn the whole place down. Actually, there is a third choice - let them burn the whole place down.]

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrqpekyxpvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

The Portland ICE office has endured over 100 consecutive nights of violence and unrest, with protesters causing property damage, assaulting staff, and doxxing employees despite the presence of National Guard troops.

  • The Portland ICE office has been targeted nightly for over 100 nights due to the local police's absence from city directives.

  • The facility has endured violence and unrest with protesters causing property damage, assaulting staff, and doxxing employees despite National Guard troops deployed to protect federal facilities from domestic terrorists.

[RSnake: This will be interesting to watch it unfold. Ideally, everyone just stays home, and this is a nothing-burger. But knowing who ICE is up against, namely Antifa, I doubt that’ll be possible.]

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trying-to-wreak-havoc-portland-ice-office-endures-nightly-attacks-for-over-100-nights-officers-threatened-doxxed/articleshow/124282936.cms

The US is considering supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but Putin warns that this could trigger a new level of escalation and require American personnel.

  • Supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would significantly expand its strike capabilities, enabling it to hit targets deep inside Russian territory.

  • The US Navy has purchased 8,959 Tomahawk missiles.

[RSnake: I am not entirely sure why we need to, unless they are older versions that we aren’t as interested in keeping around anymore. With the Flamingo, Ukraine already has the reach it needs.]

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/new-level-of-escalation-putin-warns-trump-on-sending-tomahawks-to-ukraine-us-plans-may-be-unfeasible-due-to-limited-inventories/articleshow/124281076.cms

Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded to former U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about Russia being a 'paper tiger', questioning the effectiveness of NATO in the face of Russia's military actions in Ukraine. He warned that the potential supply of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine represents a significant escalation in the conflict, asserting confidence in Russia's military position against what he claims is the entire NATO bloc in opposition to Russia's advances. Putin also dismissed allegations of Russian aggression and suggested that these tensions have escalated to a direct conflict between Russia and the West, comparable to historical confrontations during the Cold War era.

  • Putin criticized NATO's strength while asserting Russia's military advancements in Ukraine.

  • He warned that U.S. missile supplies could lead to a significant escalation in relations between Russia and the United States.

[RSnake: Again, why does Putin care about this? The Tomahawk doesn’t represent a significantly larger payload or range over the Flamingo. If we withhold them, it’s not a big deal in terms of Ukrainian lethality.]

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/we-are-fighting-against-putin-hits-back-at-trumps-paper-tiger-jibe-asks-what-is-nato-then/articleshow/124281466.cms

Cybersecurity

A security vulnerability has been discovered in several DrayTek router models that could allow remote, unauthenticated actors to execute arbitrary code, potentially causing system crashes and memory corruption.

  • DrayTek routers are vulnerable to a security flaw that can be triggered by unauthenticated remote attackers sending crafted HTTP or HTTPS requests to the device's Web User Interface (WebUI)

[RSnake: I have not heard of this particular model, but just in case you use it, just be aware.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/draytek-warns-of-remote-code-execution-bug-in-vigor-routers/

A vulnerability was discovered in 1Password's CLI product, allowing attackers to enumerate vaults and access credentials in plaintext. The vulnerability demonstrates the risk of supply-chain attacks on secure tools like 1Password.

  • 1Password’s CLI tool has a vulnerability that allows attackers to access credentials in plaintext, expanding the potential blast radius for successful malware or supply-chain attacks.

  • The vulnerability can be exploited by attackers using the CLI tool, which is marketed as a way to protect credentials from being stored in plaintext in user environments.

[RSnake: This is one of the reasons I have not been a huge proponent of cloud-based password managers. They are convenient but a huge target.]

Source: https://codeberg.org/manchicken/1password-cli-vuln-disclosure

The U.S. Secret Service has dismantled a significant decentralized SIM farm network linked to China's Ministry of State Security, posing a major threat to U.S. telecommunications. The network, based close to New York City, had the potential to execute denial-of-service attacks and was part of an ongoing campaign by China to utilize next-generation weapons and irregular warfare strategies against the U.S.

  • A decentralized SIM farm network linked to China's Ministry of State Security was dismantled by the U.S. Secret Service.

  • The network could paralyze communication in the New York metro area, posing a serious threat to the U.S.

[RSnake: This is the second one. The first was 100k sims, and this was 200k. If it were indeed the Chinese military, that would be bad. I’m still waiting for any kind of evidence showing that that is the case.]

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/china-reportedly-operated-sim-farm-network-designed-crash-nyc-cell-networks

Apple and Google Pull ICE-Tracking Apps, Bowing to DOJ Pressure; China Sentences Scam Bosses to Death, Europe Plans Drone Wall to Counter Russian Incursions.

  • ICE is staffing up to make use of social media surveillance tools and plans to hire contractors to scan X, Facebook, TikTok, and other platforms to target people for deportation.

  • A court in Eastern China handed down death sentences for members of a notorious human trafficking ring linked to a Chinese-Myanmar border compound.

[RSnake: Yeah, helping people break the law isn’t the greatest idea. I was always surprised that apps that allow tracking of police cars and radar traps were allowed on the App Store, too. Not sure why one is okay and the other isn’t. It’s not like police officers aren’t targets of the cartels.]

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/apple-and-google-pull-ice-tracking-apps-bowing-to-doj-pressure/

South Korea is experiencing a surge in high-profile hacking incidents that have exposed the personal data of millions of citizens, with some hackers using AI-generated deepfake images to spear-phish military personnel. The country's fragmented system of government ministries and agencies is hindering its ability to respond effectively to these threats. South Korea's cybersecurity defenses are struggling to keep pace with its digital ambitions.

  • South Korea is reeling from a string of high-profile hacks, affecting credit card companies, telecoms, tech startups, and government agencies, impacting vast swathes of the South Korean population.

  • The country's cyber defenses are hindered by a fragmented system of government ministries and agencies, often resulting in slow and uncoordinated responses.

  • South Korea is facing a severe shortage of skilled cybersecurity experts due to its current approach to workforce development.

[RSnake: Watch out for those attractive ladies on social media asking for you to send them pictures or information. If you don’t know them in person and aren’t someone who regularly attracts such people, it’s probably not real. Sorry. There is an awful term for one of these types of scams: Pig Butchering. It’s an ugly term, and you don’t want to be the pig.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3052540

Technology

OpenAI has surpassed SpaceX to become the world's most valuable private company, with a valuation of $500 billion, thanks to a recent deal involving the sale of stock by its employees and investors.

  • OpenAI's valuation has surpassed $500 billion after a recent deal involving the sale of stock by its employees and investors.

  • The AI giant is now worth about as much as Elon Musk himself, who owns around 12% of Tesla, one of the most valuable public companies in the world.

  • OpenAI is investing heavily in its massive AI infrastructure project, Stargate, which aims to build data centers across the US with partners like Oracle and SoftBank.

[RSnake: Congrats to them, but at what point does that bubble burst? Are they so far ahead of others that they can’t catch up? I rarely use ChatGPT anymore because others have caught up in verticals that OpenAI isn’t focused on.]

Source: https://gizmodo.com/?p=2000666727

Humanoid robots are facing safety and technical challenges that have raised doubts about their immediate deployment and efficacy. Experts argue that current designs are fundamentally unsafe for human interaction and lack the necessary sensory feedback for dexterous manipulation, making it unlikely that they will replace human workers soon.

  • Humanoid robots generate significant kinetic energy, creating safety risks for humans nearby.

  • Current training methods for robots rely on video, which neglects the complex touch-sensing required for dexterity.

[RSnake: They are extremely unsafe. Yes. Do I want one, though? Of course. Maybe a few. But we really, really need to think through how easy it is to disable them, and the hundreds of failsafes necessary for all the variants of dangerous things they might try to do, unwittingly.]

Source: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/10/why-irobots-founder-wont-go-within-10-feet-of-todays-walking-robots/

Brave Browser has reached 101 million monthly active users as of September 2025, reflecting significant growth partly attributed to the EU's Digital Markets Act. The privacy-focused search engine, Brave Search, also saw a surge in queries, indicating an increasing demand for privacy-oriented tools amidst concerns over data tracking by major tech companies.

  • Brave Browser has achieved 101 million monthly active users, marking substantial growth.

  • Brave Search has grown to 1.6 billion monthly search queries, reflecting a shift towards privacy-focused online tools.

[RSnake: Good. Use it. Stop seeing so many ads and stop getting tracked so much. It’s an easy switch.]

Source: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/software/brave-browser-surpasses-the-100-million-active-monthly-users-mark/

Replit, a coding platform, has achieved growth by pivoting its focus from professional developers to non-technical users, aiming to democratize programming. The company recently closed a $250 million funding round, tripling its valuation and reporting a sharp increase in revenue to over $150 million in annualized figures after years of stagnation. Despite its success, Replit faces competition from major AI developers like OpenAI and Anthropic, who offer similar tools and have substantial resources.

  • Replit transitioned to targeting non-technical users rather than professional developers.

  • The company reported a dramatic increase in revenue after years of minimal growth.

  • Replit continues to face competition from major AI firms that threaten its market position.

[RSnake: I am not sure that’s such a good idea over the long term. It’s already producing a lot of dangerous slop. Lowering the bar will only create even more slop.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3053896

A former OpenAI researcher raised alarms about how AI chatbots, particularly ChatGPT, can lead users into delusions, as illustrated by a Canadian man's experience of believing he had discovered a new branch of mathematics after extensive interactions with the bot. Concerns have escalated following incidents involving distressed users, prompting OpenAI to implement changes in its safety measures to better support vulnerable individuals interacting with its technology.

  • A Canadian man believed he discovered a new form of math following interactions with ChatGPT.

  • The case has prompted OpenAI to see how it supports users in crisis situations.

[RSnake: No joke. These people are “one-shotted” to believe they are actually speaking to a sentient being. It’s a dangerous delusion made worse when you hallucinate.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3053432

A report from Andreessen Horowitz, in collaboration with fintech firm Mercury, evaluates spending trends among startups in AI-native applications, indicating a diverse adoption of tools without a clear frontrunner. The report also highlights an increasing convergence between consumer and enterprise applications, as individuals incorporate personal tools into professional environments.

  • There is a rapid evolution in AI-native applications, with startups diversifying their tool usage.

  • Consumer applications are increasingly being utilized in enterprise settings, blurring the lines between personal and professional software.

[RSnake: From what I can tell, A16Z is all in on AI. Like, if you aren’t doing AI, they won’t touch it.]

Source: https://techcrunch.com/?p=3053504

Business

The U.S. federal government has accumulated a total debt of $37 trillion, with a significant increase of $2 trillion over the past year despite a stable economic environment. A government shutdown has occurred as political parties engage in budget negotiations, with both sides contributing to the escalating debt through excessive spending and negotiations over welfare programs.

  • U.S. federal debt has reached $37 trillion, with a notable increase attributed to budgetary issues.

  • A government shutdown is currently taking place, driven by conflicting priorities between Republicans and Democrats over spending and benefits.

  • Political leaders are seen as prioritizing short-term political gains over addressing the fundamental issues of rising national debt and government spending.

[RSnake: And climbing. It’s not sustainable. We have to start cutting hard; it’s not enough to continue to grow the GDP.]

Source: https://fondtimes.com/2025/10/02/the-government-shutdown-diverts-attention-from-our-37-trillion-debt/

Israel Aerospace Industries reported a 13% increase in sales and a 10% rise in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from international markets, particularly Asia and Europe. Despite criticisms of Israel's actions in the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, the company has not observed any major impact on its business operations. The largest buyer remains the Israeli Ministry of Defense, with significant contributions from missile and space systems, and the company has a backlog of $25.7 billion as of June 30, 2025.

  • IAI experienced a notable growth in sales and profit during the first half of 2025.

  • The company's operations are significantly influenced by its international sales, particularly in the defense sector.

[RSnake: I bet they did. Any defense tech in Israel is likely flush with cash at the moment, if they have anything real or even promising.]

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2025/10/02/missile-and-space-division-leads-iais-revenue-in-2025/

Elon Musk is facing a federal SEC lawsuit regarding the late disclosure of his increasing stake in Twitter, which allegedly allowed him to gain financially at the expense of investors. A judge has denied Musk's request to move the case to Texas, citing his frequent presence in Washington, DC, and his ability to manage the case proceedings there. The lawsuit stems from Musk's delay in revealing his 5-percent stake in Twitter, which the SEC claims affected stock prices.

  • Elon Musk is involved in a legal case regarding the late disclosure of his Twitter stake.

  • The SEC claims Musk's delay in disclosure caused financial harm to unsuspecting investors.

[RSnake: I am not surprised this case is coming back to haunt Musk. The way that entire deal happened felt like it would come back in the form of investor suits.]

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/2/judge-denies-elon-musks-bid-to-move-twitter-case-from-washington-to-texas?traffic_source=rss

Surging interest in artificial intelligence is driving a stock market rally in China, with significant gains in major tech companies such as Alibaba and Baidu, as well as a general increase in Chinese stock indices. The Chinese government is investing heavily in AI infrastructure to foster national self-sufficiency in advanced technologies, coinciding with a growing competition with the United States over AI leadership.

  • Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Baidu have seen substantial gains this year, largely due to increased interest in artificial intelligence.

  • The Chinese government has bolstered investments in AI infrastructure as part of a strategy to enhance domestic capabilities in advanced technologies.

  • Relations between China and the U.S. are influencing market dynamics, with China aiming to become self-sufficient in technology and attract public offerings.

[RSnake: AI with censorship is an evolutionary dead end. Almost no one understands that. China cannot build it without censorship, because it breaks their regime’s narratives.]

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/03/business/china-tech-stocks-artificial-intelligence.html

The U.S. government has eliminated the de minimis duty exemption, which allowed small imported packages valued under $800 to enter without import duties, significantly impacting how customs processes incoming goods. Retailers, especially small businesses, are expected to face challenges in fulfilling customer orders due to increased processing times and potential delivery suspensions from foreign postal services, leading to fewer products and higher prices for consumers during peak shopping seasons.

  • The elimination of the de minimis exemption affects the processing of millions of packages entering the U.S. daily.

  • Small businesses could struggle to serve customers due to new duties and delivery suspensions.

  • Consumers may experience fewer available products and higher prices during major shopping periods.

[RSnake: Oh wow. The Tariff is in full swing then. I hope you followed my advice early this year to order all the necessary items at a discounted price. Because it’s gonna get more expensive.]

Source: https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/42605-watch-the-end-of-de-minimis-how-it-impacts-retailers

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Full Disclosure: None of this is advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and my opinions. Please exercise caution, conduct your own research, and consult a professional before taking any action based on the information presented here.