RSnake Report 20260307

Iran attacks peers, Mass shooting in Austin, etc

Author

Robert RSnake Hansen
March 07, 2026

What's In the News

Hello, and thanks for reading! I just got back from NYC after a conference for cyber insurers, where I keynoted about how their data has proven that information security is wildly behind. It got me another speaking gig, so apparently it went over well. I also raced around COTA in a million-dollar Ferrari with a good friend of mine yesterday. We hit >150mph on the front straight up to the big turn 1 and >170mph on the back straight. That was a workout, even just hanging out in the passenger's seat. I have new respect for professional drivers!

Also, I did a big rewrite of the RSnake Report back-end to speed up the process of getting the report put together. You may notice some minor formatting stuff that's slightly different, but hopefully minor, and it should speed up the process a lot on my side, so I can focus on the geopolitics and less on the cutting and pasting administrative part. So let's get into it!

Let's start with Russian/Ukrainian news. Ukrainian strike drones targeted Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, hitting the oil port four times, the fuel oil terminal once, and the railway twice, while maritime drones also struck the Sheskharis oil terminal and Russian naval vessels, including warships, a 30N6E2 radar for the S-300 PMU-2 system, a Pantsir-S2 air defense system, and six of seven oil loading berths. 

Satellite images showed smoke from a Russian Navy ship at the port following the attacks.

In January 2026, Ukraine captured over 150 intact Russian Geran-2 (Shahed) drones launched at Kyiv using GPS spoofing and Kevlar-net interceptors by FPV pilots, extracting MD550 engines and guidance kits; Russia ordered self-destructs on its own assets to prevent further theft but failed, leading Ukraine to integrate the technology into Beaver 2.0 drones for a retaliatory strike on the originating base, forcing Russia to halt all launches due to inability to distinguish friend from foe.

Zelenskyy proposed sending Ukrainian experts on Iranian drone defense to the Middle East if regional leaders could convince Putin to agree to a one- to two-month ceasefire, allowing Ukraine to assist in protecting civilians there. Also, the Pentagon and at least one Gulf government are negotiating to purchase Ukraine's low-cost drone interceptors to counter Iranian attack drones. Although this video wasn't necessarily meant to show this off, it did anyway - because clearly the video is taken from a drone, and another interceptor is launched from it. That means that the main mothership drone can be more complex, and it can make the interceptor very cheap, with maybe only a minute of flight time, which would make it extremely inexpensive.

Russian crude oil faces high demand despite sanctions, with six tankers recently loaded and anchored off Oman. Now down to two, which means sales have started to occur. Sales in Indian ports at premiums above Brent, exceeding the price cap; the war has unintended effects like boosting Russian oil exports and forcing Europe to buy more Russian gas, while Putin aims to entangle the US in the Iran conflict to sideline Ukraine.

Russia's Express-AT1 telecommunications satellite failed on March 4, considered lost by the Russian Space Communications Company, with satellite television reception for remaining subscribers available within a month. But more interestingly, North Korea apparently had started using these systems, and therefore, its state media stopped working. 

Brent oil futures opened 12% higher amid the ongoing Middle East war.

The crash of the tanker maritime insurance market will necessitate Gulf tanker escorts, similar to 1988's Operation Praying Mantis. Gulf oil is no longer flowing to the US through the Strait of Hormuz. But more importantly, because for us it's only a minor hit at the pump, it's affecting China and the EU. Speaking of...

We are seeing lots of data that leads me to believe that we are going to see a partial for sure, but maybe even a full shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz. It is something that the Iranians have threatened many times, so yes. I think we should expect this to help the Russian oil market. But that said, Russia needs Iranian equipment, and that will now be in short supply, so I wouldn't say this is necessarily a win, despite what people are saying.

In European news, Trump directed the US Development Finance Corporation to offer political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade through the Gulf, especially energy shipments, backed by Navy escorts if needed, addressing the insurance market collapse that halted one-fifth of global oil supply when London firms withdrew coverage and reinsurers pulled out; this sovereign intervention challenges Lloyd's dominance, breaks the actuarial blockade, redirects premium revenue to Washington, creates dual US control over Gulf access, and reassures producers and consumers without resolving the military issues.

The Shaded Killer, a drone developed in Norfolk, is not in service with the British Armed Forces.

In South East Asian news, violent clashes in Karachi, Pakistan, followed US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as hundreds of protesters attempted to storm the US Consulate, resulting in at least nine deaths and over 50 wounded, including several in critical condition, after security forces confronted demonstrators; reports later indicated 22 deaths and 120 injuries, with windows smashed and a nearby police post set on fire. Our allies learned from Benghazi, and according to reports, the Pakistani security forces were the ones who opened fire on the protestors. Good on them for protecting the embassy.

Ships in the Persian Gulf have altered transponder messages to indicate Chinese ownership or crew, such as "Chinese Owner" or "All Chinese Crew," to avoid potential Iranian attacks.

The big news was definitely Middle East news, where the war against Iran is in full swing. Iran was at it, attacking a ton of various countries around the Middle East. For instance, a missile hit Doha, Qatar. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the hitting of 4 oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman was not their choice. I guess it was just magic! ✨ There is a claim that armed forces acting independently on pre-given instructions acted, and a lack of command and control was to blame. Araghchi admitted the regime operates like a distributed terrorist network with loose central control, similar to Al-Qaeda, rendering any deal with Tehran ineffective for Middle East peace as IRGC units lack oversight.

The IRGC hit at least four oil tankers in 48 hours. Skylight in the Strait of Hormuz, Mkd Vyom twice in the Gulf of Oman, Hercules Star west of Sharjah, and Stena Imperative in Bahrain.

This is wise wording on their part, because Iran knows that it just lost the support of approximately 10 surrounding nations, and it knows it needs to rebuild some trust. But at the same time, he is saying his nation is so weak it doesn't even know what to attack, because it's been hitting civilian infrastructure by accident. So not evil, just completely incompetent? How is that better? And they want nukes? I can't imagine this is improving the situation much amongst those in control, but it might win some hearts and minds by saying he is only attacking what he thinks are valid US targets in those countries. I doubt this guy has much longer...

If you think this is one cohesive government. Think again. The Iranian regular army (Artesh) may have already started to clash with the IRGC in Tehran, refusing air defense transfers and protest suppression. Artesh positions itself as the national salvation post-revolution. If that is the case, they have even less control than they have been claiming.

The US conducted its first combat use of the LUCAS kamikaze drone during Operation Epic Fury against Iran. For those not familiar with this, it was reverse-engineered from Iranian Shahed drones fired by Russia at Ukraine, captured, and fired back, improved, and fired back at Iran. The irony! 🤣 This also may be the first time we have seen littoral ships used in modern conflict.

Israeli Air Force strikes destroyed the Iranian regime's headquarters in central Tehran, along with the General Headquarters of Internal Security Forces. It was a command and control center linking the regime to field forces and suppressing civilians and the Tharallah headquarters for defending Tehran. Dozens of fighter jets executed another wave over Tehran skies. Apparently, B-1 bombers are doing a big chunk of the work, which is interesting because they really were meant to drop nukes on Moscow. Fast-moving, heavy-hitting, and now being used on one of Russia's most faithful partners. 

US bombers B-2 Spirit, B-1 Lancer, and B-52 Stratofortress operated simultaneously for the first time, hitting over 200 Iranian targets, including missile bunkers with 2,000-lb penetrators and potential GBU-57s. That's three generations of bombers all in one theatre of war. Fun fact, I've always loved the B1 bomber, and its variable wing geometry. The BONE. The name comes from the name B-ONE, as in B-1. Love it.


Former Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Ali Shamkhani were allegedly killed in the strikes, though a later report rebuffed that claim and said that Ahmadinejad survived with three bodyguards killed after his house was targeted and destroyed. I am not sure which I believe, but worth following.

Ayatollah Arafi was appointed acting Supreme Leader of Iran, but multiple reports indicate he was killed in a subsequent airstrike. In fact, there was another, and then perhaps even one more that was killed. I can't even keep track anymore! 😂

And one more meme, for the fans...

The IDF has now effectively eliminated all senior leaders of Iran's Axis of Terror. If you were a senior leader, you have got to be wondering exactly what the next few days and weeks entail for you.

Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in India, Dr. Abdul Majid Hakeem Ilahi, said Khamenei refused to leave his office despite security pleas, insisting on staying with Iran's 90 million people, and was killed there with his wife, daughter-in-law, and nephew in a morning attack by Israeli and American aircraft.

The IDF struck dozens of Iranian regime combat headquarters, including Revolutionary Guards, intelligence, air force, and internal security sites, damaging command and control by eliminating soldiers responsible for anti-Israel terror planning; one emergency complex served operations and intelligence divisions for managing fighting. But this is happening in broad daylight. Iran has zero air defense, which speaks volumes about how poorly the Chinese radar and Russian S300 and S400 systems fared against the US and Israeli forces.

Iraqis also attempted to take over the American Embassy, with security forces firing back. So, for those counting, add on yet another attack against yet another embassy. This anger will continue and could perhaps increase over time, but keep in mind, Iran has a lot of proxy fighters throughout the region, so this should be expected.

The feeling on the ground is apparently one of happiness from the vast majority of Iranians who never supported the regime. Iranians in Tehran and Karaj cheered explosions from rooftops, chanting slogans as regime terrorist bases were hit; mosques and religious halls now serve as IRGC military bases and should be bombed, along with reformist homes, as the people demand continued Trump attacks and support the revolution. They begged, "DO NOT STOP the attacks," and others made videos thanking Trump. So, apparently, we are having a strong effect in the cities already, like hitting the 104 police station, which likely made things easier for protesters.

Here is a better, up-close look at that same police station now. Not looking so good.

And of course, the IRGC base in Sanandaj was also hit. Also boarder guard command centers, intelligence offices. We have hit an insane number of targets already.  What a demoralizing situation it must be.

Kurdish forces have allegedly launched something looking like a ground offensive from Iraq into Iran, with thousands crossing the border to take combat positions. Now we get to where this could get super complicated. Turkey has been embroiled in an on-and-off again conflict against the Kurds for ages. If Trump lets the Kurds win in this conflict and carve out a real mini-country or even take over Iran wholesale, Turkey will have a formidable enemy nearby with all of the weapons they'd want to eventually use against Turkey. So expect Turkey to protest this action verbally and maybe even side with Iran against the Kurds, whom we would be backing. So expect NATO on NATO weapons if that happens. That said, we need some boots on the ground, and they're up for it, and I don't think we want our troops getting killed in more roadside bombs. Fun fun! 👎

The US Navy deployed the HELIOS laser weapon system on a destroyer off Iran's coast, using it against drones in Operation Epic Fury; it counters Shahed drones at near-zero marginal cost versus million-dollar interceptors, inverting Iran's cheap drone saturation doctrine and testing directed energy in combat.

A drone targeted Dubai International Airport as President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighbors for recent attacks. So which is it? I think the truth is complicated and has more to do with the fact that they have no control over certain aspects of their military apparatus. That will be a small consolation to the surrounding nations.

An IRGC base in Chardavol, Ilam province, western Iran, and in Isfahan was destroyed. So by taking out these bases, they are both degrading their supply of people and weapons, but also making rally points more complicated, and completely wiping out command and control.

The IRGC launched the 12th wave of Operation True Promise 4, using 26 attack drones and five ballistic missiles targeting Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE, NSA Bahrain, and the oil tanker Athen Nova in the Strait of Hormuz.

A drone struck the US consulate parking lot in Dubai.

Israel hacked Iran's civilian surveillance network, including traffic cameras for facial recognition and hijab enforcement, transmitting footage to Tel Aviv servers. A Pasteur Street camera revealed Khamenei's security details, enabling the precision strike that killed him using the regime's own tools against it. Pretty incredible. We always knew nation-states could use this against each other, but this is an amazingly good example of how the data that the regime used to find women who weren't wearing burkas could be used against the regime itself, leading to their own death. Fitting end!

Unit 8200 tracked Khamenei's routine for over 20 years using hacked traffic cameras and AI on intercepted calls, striking at 9:40 a.m. on a Saturday when he was above ground with family before he went below ground into his bunker. Blue Sparrow missiles from F-15s exited the atmosphere to bypass defenses, killing Khamenei and six officials before Iran even detected the war.

Speaking of hacking, the US hacked the Iranian regime TV, with Trump messaging direct support to Iranians to reclaim their nation. The Economist noted that Trump acts against weak adversaries like Iran or Venezuela for swift knockouts, not strong ones. Cuba will likely be taking note of all of this. President Pezeshkian said enemies' dream of Iran's surrender will die with them, though, so I doubt they will surrender easily.

Iranian militias received text messages warning their weapons are useless against airstrikes, commanders have betrayed them, and they face graves while leaders hide in luxury. So clearly, we are engaged in hybrid warfare.

Iran's ballistic missile launches declined over five days: 350 on day one, 175 on day two, 120 on day three, 50 on day four, and 40 on day five; drone swarms followed: 294, 541, 200, 85, and 45. Missile sirens in Israel dropped sharply over three days: 176 on February 28, 105 on March 1, and 42 by March 2 evening, indicating a rapid loss of Iranian launchers.

As some others have noted, this may also be part of what is causing Iran to halt it's attacks on peers in the region. Not because it realizes it's loosing hearts and minds, but because it simply cannot muster the munitions anymore. Interesting theory anyway.

That theory might be true, given one theory that shows how few targets really have been hit, all things considered. Basically, with thousands of missiles, there are only dozens of strikes that have been identified. That indicates they're losing, and badly.

Meanwhile, if anything, we have stayed steady state with the amount of cruise missiles, drones, attacks, and bomber runs we have been sending inbound. Though I do worry that this could wind up being another Houthi situation, with a slow rumble of low-grade attacks that last forever if we're not careful. Obviously, no one can withstand this level of firepower for long, but what they can do is guerrilla warfare if they don't care about losing a huge number of people along the way.

Hezbollah projectiles gave the IDF a chance to test the new laser Iron Beam technology, intercepting them successfully. I heard a number of people claim that this was not an Iron beam, but it is possible that it was, but that what we are looking at is the launcher, not the beam itself. The light at the bottom is where the beam is hitting the smoke from the launcher and the explosions in the sky are where it finally detonates, giving you some sense of how long the beam has to operate before it penetrates the shell.

Iranian Shahed-136 drones struck an Aramco oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia retaliates, Houthis may resume heavy strikes, risking additional risk of closures of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. So Saudi Arabia really needs to consider how or if it retaliates. There is a theory going around that Saudi Arabia targeted an Iranian gas pipeline in Ahvaz after the Aramco strike. Not sure if that is believable, but it would be proportional.

Iran released a video showing underground tunnels, featuring Shahed-136 UAVs and a new jet-powered Shahed variant. That means that there are likely a lot more of them that haven't yet been destroyed, but they are likely loath to try, because each time they do, there is an immediate strike against the complexes from which they came. And that is all due to Gorgon Stare, which watches the landscape for bad things, and then rewinds the tape to see where the launchers came from, and boom.

Three US F-15E Strike Eagles crashed over Kuwait in a friendly fire incident, shot down by Kuwaiti defenses amid Iranian threats; all six crew ejected safely and were recovered. But the real question is was it intentional or not. I tend to think no, even though they were within visual range, but I'll wait for a more formal investigation.

Iranian media reported striking a UAE oil platform in the Persian Gulf. Again, making friends everywhere. While a good hit, and actually a pretty impressive strike, it's also exactly the kind of belligerent attack against a non-military target that makes the oil-wealthy Emirati want regime change.

Satellite imagery showed extensive damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain, US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters, from Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, with several buildings destroyed. While bad, it could have been so, so much worse. Apparently, the most complicated and expensive radome was actually owned by Bahrain, not by the US.

Qatar's air force shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers, intercepted seven ballistic missiles, and five drones.

CENTCOM denied Iranian claims of sinking a US carrier, confirming only that the Iranian drone carrier Shahid Bagheri was struck early in Operation Epic Fury. I did a long write-up about a drone that launched from this thing a while back. This thing is really a scrap heap, but it needed to be taken off the board. I still don't think the thing was even able to move under its own steam. It's more like a floating airport than a carrier ship.

However, while they may not have sunk one of our ships, an American submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean with a torpedo. It is the first such sinking by a US sub since World War II, and it is really nasty.

Some of these torpedoes use a huge bubble of water under the hull, and that causes it to fracture and break in half, like the Iranian warship we struck in the Indian Ocean. Either way, apparently, Iran has zero ships in the Gulf of Oman now.

A US-flagged tanker, Stena Imperative, was hit by two projectiles in a Bahrain shipyard, killing one dockworker, injuring two, and causing a fire that was extinguished. The crew evacuated, and ships in the Strait await renegotiation of war risk insurance.

The IDF conducted a precision strike in Beirut targeting a senior militant. So we should expect to see more operations against the proxies in the area. Hezbollah is severely degraded, but the fact that they continue to operate despite losing the bulk of the firepower of their financiers, in Iran, shows how die-hard they actually are.

Ammunition cooked off at the US air base in Erbil International Airport, Iraq, from a Shahed-type drone. Saraya Awliya al-Dam, which is a pro-Iranian proxy, claimed responsibility, using a Fateh-110 missile.

It's not all good news on the US dominance technologically. One innovation was a bit alarming. One Iranian hypersonic missile looks to have evaded over 10 interceptors to hit a target. The video looks better than any screen grabs I could get, so watch it, but the short of it is that they have gotten sophisticated enough to learn how to evade at least some of the munitions Israel is using. There was another similar video here that shows something quite similar. And another that shows the use of penetration aids or decoys. Not great.

An AWS outage in me-central-1 occurred due to bombing. There were at least a few data centers hit. I was on a call with one provider who had a major outage due to these bombings in an airline support system, so these hits really are causing some major damage, but it's really just making people move their equipment overseas, which I don't think is having the intended effect. That said, I am certain some military applications are hosted in those data centers, too.

Pro-Iran hacktivist groups, now 60 strong, targeted neighbors. Pro-Russian groups are joining in support, for obvious reasons. They very much need Iran to stall or even stop US support with arms to Ukraine.

The US initially planned weeks for Operation Epic Fury, but it will continue as needed to deny Iran nuclear weapons. It has met its current expected objectives already, but is settling in for approximately 100 more days, which is bumping up against the midterm elections. Trump has stated that we are willing to put boots on the ground as an option. Woof. I really hope that does not happen.

In North American news, Senator Fetterman criticized Democrats for not reading the War Powers Act, noting Trump's 48-hour notification to the Gang of Eight, no ground troops, and precise strikes eliminating leadership without activating 60- to 90-day withdrawal requirements. He's right, and there is some nuance here, but US Presidents have a lot of latitude.. for a while... for fighting a war. But to declare a wara

Much closer to home, a shooting outside Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden on West 6th Street in Austin, Texas, killed three and injured 14. The suspect, 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, a Senegalese-born naturalized US citizen from Pflugerville, was fatally shot by police. The FBI is investigating the obvious potential terrorism links, with a Quran in his vehicle, "Property of Allah" sweatshirt, and an Iranian flag undershirt, occurring 24 hours after US strikes killed Khamenei. Diagne entered on a B-2 visa in 2000, became a permanent resident in 2006 via marriage, naturalized around 2012-2013, had arrests for vending and a 2022 collision, and was designated emotionally disturbed. He circled the block in an SUV, fired a handgun, then a rifle, and was killed 57 seconds after the first call. He appears to be a lone actor, possibly self-radicalized, with prior New York and San Antonio residences, and he was divorced in 2022. And no, no one I know was shot. Thankfully.

In other Austin news... the Austin Police are now barred from arresting or detaining based solely on noncriminal ICE warrants. So Austin Police are now required to ignore federal law. I am a bit torn. Do states’ rights matter? Then we should be able to do whatever we like. But this is a city, not a state. Also, do I want the feds controlling what happens inside states? Not particularly, but illegality that crosses state lines needs to be handled by some agency, so... here we are. I think this will likely be chalked up to another kooky thing sanctuary cities do, and will get hammered by the Governor, but we shall see.

President Trump secured pledges from tech companies, including Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI, under the Ratepayer Protection Pledge to cover all new power generation costs for data centers, preventing residential electricity price increases.  This avoids bans on data centers, lowers prices via grid upgrades and excess power sales, and positions AI firms as power providers. It also could be a short-term agreement for as long as he is in office, but that's still better than the alternative.

In Tech news, Red Team Operations Architecture Map is a single HTML file outlining 28 attack chains from infrastructure to impact, with 119 technique cards covering C2, evasion, AD attacks, and more, including detection and OPSEC for tools like CrowdStrike; it works offline. It's clearly AI slop, but it still could be quite interesting for those trying to figure out how hacking actually works.

OpenAI amended its DoW agreement to prohibit domestic surveillance of US persons, including via commercial data, and bar use by intelligence agencies like the NSA without modification. It emphasizes democratic processes, technical safeguards, and learning from rushed announcements. That said, the DoW has wide latitude, and there are lots of ways around this pretty weak language, if you are even vaguely good at reading contracts. Personally, I think Sam Altman looks very sloppy in how he words contracts, and his understanding of US law is shaky.

Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses captured footage of naked people, sensitive information, and violence, reviewed by Meta's AI and employees, raising privacy concerns. So be aware that if you use those things, a team in Africa is watching and processing all of that video for tagging purposes.

A knowledge graph of 3,000 math topics from 4th grade to university enables kids to get a mastery of math, allowing third-graders to complete six years in one by demonstrating topic mastery before advancing. This is a really cool SaaS that enables a new way of learning math. So if you have a kiddo looking to get way, way ahead of his class in math, this is one way to get that process going.

Aqua Security’s Trivy repo was compromised via a stolen GitHub PAT, deleting releases, renaming the repo, and publishing a malicious VS Code extension. It also targeted Microsoft, DataDog, and CNCF projects using excessive token access, write-permission workflows, and ungated publishes; a new tool maps GitHub attack paths across orgs. This is AI hacking AI that misreads things to do unexpected things.

An NVIDIA-powered farming machine uses AI vision and lasers to eliminate weeds in milliseconds without herbicides or crop harm. I have often thought something should be built, and it is very cool to see it actually being used. This could be a huge win for food safety and allergies caused by the toxins we spray on our produce.

Obliteratus is an open-source toolkit for removing refusal behaviors from LLMs using 13 methods like spectral cascade and 15 analysis modules for refusal geometry; features informed pipelines, 11 novel techniques, 116 models, and crowd-sourced telemetry for research. We talked about this before, but I think this will likely be the real package that people start using to get around censored local models.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 found 22 Firefox vulnerabilities in two weeks with Mozilla, including 14 high-severity. However, in closer analysis, it was only able to create code for two of them. And in practice, none of them will ever be used by attackers. A bit of a pointless but interesting exercise nonetheless. 

Okay, onto the articles!

Geopolitics

At least 41 people have been killed following Israeli air and ground strikes in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, with reports of significant clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. The recent military actions have escalated tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border, leading to substantial civilian displacement and a humanitarian crisis in the region.

  • Israeli airstrikes have resulted in numerous casualties in Lebanon, including soldiers.

  • Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters have intensified, contributing to regional instability.

  • The ongoing conflict has caused significant civilian displacement and humanitarian concerns.

[RSnake: I suspect there will be a lot more, too. Hezbollah is going to be hunted.]

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/7/hezbollah-israeli-troops-clash-on-the-ground-in-eastern-lebanons-bekaa?traffic_source=rss

Global oil prices have surged significantly due to the intensifying conflict involving Iran, leading to fears of long-term disruptions in energy supply from the Middle East. The situation has resulted in reduced oil production and severely impacted key shipping routes, contributing to rising fuel costs and financial market instability worldwide.

  • The Iran war has caused significant disruptions in global oil supply, pushing prices to their highest levels since 2022.

  • Shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large portion of the world's oil trade, are facing unprecedented risks due to the ongoing conflict.

[RSnake: Incredibly, I think the US has enough oil to survive this, especially now that we have access to Venezuelan oil.]

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/explained-how-iran-war-is-driving-sharp-rise-in-oil-and-gas-prices/articleshow/129198241.cms

A recent attack in Kuwait has resulted in the deaths of six U.S. service members, reflecting the ongoing tensions related to military operations in the region. Additionally, U.S. President Trump has called for increased military actions against Iran and has urged defense contractors to enhance production in light of the conflict. Unemployment rates have also risen significantly due to the economic impact of the ongoing war in Iran.

  • Six U.S. service members were killed in an attack in Kuwait.

  • President Trump is advocating for intensified military actions against Iran.

  • The war in Iran has contributed to a significant rise in unemployment rates.

[RSnake: Really sad, but still, the casualty count is incredibly low. It will likely grow, but still impressively small.]

Source: https://abcnews.com/US/video/attack-us-service-members-kuwait-hits-close-home-130816975

President Donald Trump has expressed his views on Iran's future leadership, suggesting a preference for a leader committed to peace and stability rather than strictly democratic governance. He indicated that the U.S. could play a significant role in shaping Iran's next government following recent military operations that have significantly weakened the Iranian leadership. Trump criticized the potential appointment of Khamenei's son as a continuation of the existing regime and emphasized support for Iranian citizens seeking to reclaim their government during ongoing turmoil.

  • Trump believes the next Iranian leader should prioritize peace and stability.

  • U.S. military operations have drastically weakened Iran's leadership structure.

  • Trump has publicly opposed the succession of Khamenei's son to leadership.

[RSnake: Pray that we do not put boots in the ground. But I am surprised he didn’t back the son. He was about as pro-western as it gets in Iran.]

Source: https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-lays-out-conditions-for-next-iranian-leader

Cuba's communist government is experiencing a major economic collapse, facing severe inflation and infrastructure decay. The U.S. is poised to send Secretary of State Marco Rubio to assist the situation as the Cuban regime struggles with dwindling fuel supplies and deteriorating food security.

  • The Cuban government is on the verge of collapse with rising inflation and failing infrastructure.

  • The U.S. plans to involve Secretary of State Marco Rubio in managing the crisis in Cuba as fuel supplies dwindle.

Cybersecurity

Iran is experiencing a severe internet blackout, with connectivity reduced by 99% following air strikes that killed senior officials. As a result, the majority of the population lacks access to the global internet, while the regime maintains control and access through an internal network used for surveillance and propaganda. The ongoing conflict further complicates the situation, impacting communication and information flow within the country.

  • Iran's internet access has plummeted due to a government-imposed shutdown and air strikes.

  • The regime uses a domestic intranet to control information while limiting access for the general population.

[RSnake: Things have been better in Iran, that is for sure!]

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/the-future-of-irans-internet-is-more-uncertain-than-ever/

A group of hacktivists has successfully compromised at least nine Mexican government agencies, stealing sensitive data including personal identities and tax records. The attackers utilized AI tools, specifically many attributes of OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, to enhance their infiltration techniques and exploit vulnerabilities within government systems over several months.

  • Hacktivists used AI tools to infiltrate multiple Mexican government agencies, leading to significant data theft.

  • The attackers' methods included bypassing security systems and using AI to develop sophisticated malware.

[RSnake: That’s pretty bad, but I wonder if they will start uncovering links to the cartels. That would be scandalous.

Technology

OpenAI has launched GPT-5.4, a new AI model that improves capabilities in reasoning, coding, and professional work. This model is designed to perform complex tasks more efficiently and accurately while integrating better with computer tools and workflows. It offers significant advancements in areas like document creation, web research, and the ability to operate across various software systems.

  • GPT-5.4 enables agents to enhance productivity in professional settings through improved coding and reasoning capabilities.

  • The model has achieved state-of-the-art performance across various benchmarks, significantly surpassing its predecessor GPT-5.2 in multiple professional tasks.

[RSnake: I suspect it will be slightly better at tool use as well.]

Microsoft has developed Phi-4-reasoning-vision-15B, a multimodal reasoning model that integrates visual and textual understanding, designed to perform a variety of vision-language tasks more efficiently. This model utilizes a mid-fusion architecture and a carefully curated dataset to optimize the trade-offs between accuracy and resource consumption, making it suitable for interactive applications and efficient deployment. The model excels in math and science reasoning, potentially impacting educational and scientific analysis applications significantly.

  • Phi-4-reasoning-vision-15B is designed for a wide range of vision-language tasks, including image captioning and math problem-solving.

  • The model offers a balance between reasoning capability and efficiency, allowing it to operate effectively in resource-constrained environments.

  • Microsoft emphasizes data quality and architecture choices in training the model to achieve competitive performance against larger models.

[RSnake: These are ridiculously useful for all sorts of applications around the home and in work environments if they can run on commodity hardware.]

Business

Major tech companies like Google, Meta, and Oracle are engaged in unprecedented borrowing, approaching $1 trillion in new debt, mainly to finance data center expansions for AI infrastructure. This shift towards heavy debt is altering the financial landscape for traditional internet companies, potentially leading to increased risks of overinvestment and market corrections in the future.

  • Tech companies are taking on nearly $1 trillion in debt to fund massive data center investments for AI.

  • This increased borrowing introduces risks of overinvestment, affecting how companies are valued and operate.

[RSnake: I would look carefully at who is lending them all this money, because they have a long road to go down before the debt repayment is going to take place.]

Russia has significantly reduced support for small businesses, cutting aid by a third and increasing taxes, which has severely affected the civilian economy. As a result, small and micro enterprises are facing rising debt and financial instability, with the country's GDP growth sharply declining and a concentration of bad loans in the small business sector. Government spending is increasingly directed toward military and defense at the expense of the general economy.

  • Russia's financial support for small businesses decreased from 529.5 billion rubles in 2024 to 354 billion rubles in 2025.

  • Small businesses are facing increased taxes and financial instability, contributing to a decline in GDP growth.

  • The Kremlin's budget allocation is heavily skewed toward military spending, reflecting a retreat from supporting the civilian economy.

[RSnake: Russia really has got themselves into a tailspin. Hopefully the new oil money won’t help them unbury themselves too quickly. A poor Russia is one that might be more willing to come to the table.]

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Full Disclosure: None of this is advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and my opinions. Please be careful, do your own research, and consult a professional before taking any action based on anything posted here.