RSnake Report 20240805

Market crash, middle east braces for war, and more.

Author

Robert RSnake Hansen
August 05, 2024

Table of Contents

Hello and welcome to the Thunder Dome. This week started off with a bang and not the one that most people might have expected. It did not start with bombs in the Middle East; it started with the Japanese stock market leading the way for the largest market sell-off in years.

We are watching history unfold: bad job reports, inflation, rate hikes on FOREX for the Yen, and a pending war. Berkshire Hathaway liquidating its positions is always interesting news. That’s a bad sign for almost everyone except for the military-industrial complex, which seems to be doing rather well.

Lockheed to the moon

It is not clear to me where the bottom is, but it is clear that the trading platforms don’t believe we’ve hit it yet, with many allegedly halting sell orders. Once that halt is lifted, we’ll see how bad this damage really is, but this is already the third worst VIX has looked in the 21st century.

Bad day for VIX

“Yes, but Robert, didn’t you predict that there would be fireworks on Monday? It’s Monday!” I did, and it sure is. There was an attack against US forces at the Al-Assad airbase in western Iraq today, with a few injured personnel, but this is far from what we expect and expected. One of the biggest problems with making predictions is that externalities can change, and there were a lot of changes over the weekend that could have contributed to the delay. First is the purported assassination of a senior official in Hezbollah’s drone program, which is heavily tied to Iran.

Drone program satellite photo

Next is the presence of one of Russia’s most senior military leaders in the region. What does this mean? Shoigu is likely brokering better or solidifying existing deal terms between the countries, leading to what now amounts to a much more constrained supply of drones to Russia, which they badly need in their fight with Ukraine. This may have slowed Iran’s response as they dealt with this last-minute and unexpected negotiation.

Shoigu in Iran

Lastly it may be that the Iranians are actually scared by new purported backroom threats to Iranian energy supply.

Iran getting a threatening aura

That is a lot of movement, not to mention there have been reports of minor explosions in Lebanon, which may have temporarily disrupted supplies or killed key personnel. But we are seeing the Jordanian military trying to schedule flights for later this week, which may mean the delay is providing time to let non-combatant dignitaries an opportunity to egress. It’s not over by a long shot. In fact in many ways this isn’t that surprising.

- Qassem Soleimani was assassinated January 3rd, 2020, Iran retaliation came on the 8th of January. 5 days later.

- Israel bombed Iran's consulate on April 1st, 2024, Iran retaliation came on the 13th of April. 12 days later.

This isn’t a gentleman’s armistice. This is Iran giving themselves time to plan and coordinate with leaders in Jordan, and Syria, and Yemen, and radicals in Iraq. It also has the happy side effect of unnerving Israel’s people and allies. So, yes, they could have also been intentionally misleading Israel and the public writ large.

However, in case you’re interested, there are a lot of signs beyond a new carrier strike group entering the theater and an increase of Poseidon and Predator/Reaper recon flights around Kuwait and along Israel’s western border. For instance, there have been huge GPS outages around the eastern Mediterranean, Israel, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan - likely meant to deter targeting of blue water and coastal vessels, ports, troops, and equipment.

People now know how frail civilian GPS really is

Also, pizza delivery has been way up, and bars are emptying around the Pentagon in recent days.

Pizza meter is off the charts

And Secretary of State Blinken telling allies we have 2 days.

Blinken’s warning - is he right?

And the fact that NOTAM warnings are going out to pilots in the area, flights in the region are being severely delayed or canceled, China and Russia are telling their people to leave, Israel is maxing reserves of coal and diesel, the USA just unblocked a large cache of 2,000 lb bombs destined to Israel, and so many other signals.

Whew….

Let’s get into the news, shall we…?


The stock market has been experiencing significant fluctuations, with some experts warning of a potential downturn.

• Bill Gross, also known as the ‘Bond King,’ warned against buying into the current market dip, citing a lack of ‘bull stocks’.

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold a massive $75.5 billion worth of stock and nearly halved its stake in Apple.

Him and about half of the rest of the world along with him. Bitcoin has also seen a huge dump. The memes are hilarious by the way. Back from the moon to flipping burgers.

The US Army is understaffed and struggling to maintain a presence on multiple fronts, with active-duty personnel numbers at their lowest point since World War II.

- Critical understaffing in the US Army has left it unable to project power and deter aggression.

- Declining defense budgets and recruitment woes have exacerbated the problem, making it difficult for the Army to maintain its global leadership role.

- The Commission on the National Defense Strategy recommends a comprehensive approach involving the DoD, other government agencies, and international partners to counter modern threats effectively.

This is really bad timing but it’s also not surprising. The government has really hollowed out the reason why people get into the military in the first place. It has wildly de-prioritized the most important aspects of military regimen, honor, professionalism, discipline etc.

Over three years, the city of Beirut has been struggling to survive amidst revolution, COVID-19, and a port explosion.

- The situation in Lebanon led to a continuous barrage that helped materialize the story of Beirut.

- The documentary film 'Anxious in Beirut' documents these events, including the revolution, destruction, and demonstrations.

Protesters in Nigeria are demanding quicker reforms and government action to ease the pain of a cost-of-living crisis, as violence erupts across several states. The new president has called for an end to the demonstrations and an end to 'bloodshed'.

- Government revenues have more than doubled in the first half of this year, but 68% is now being spent on debt servicing.

- Protesters are calling for a cut in petrol prices and electricity tariffs, as well as reinstatement of fuel subsidies.

Bangladesh protests over a jobs quota system have turned into a broader anti-government movement demanding the prime minister's resignation. The protests are violent and widespread, with clashes between protesters and government supporters reported. A curfew has been imposed, and a communication blackout is in place.

- Students and activists are calling for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign.

- The protests have turned violent, with reports of deaths and injuries.

- A curfew has been imposed and internet services shut down.

Russia continues to shell Ukraine, killing one and injuring two in Donetsk region. Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 drones and several missiles. Russia also launched over 600 guided air bombs on Ukraine in the last week.

- Russian shelling killed one person and injured two in Donetsk region.

- Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 drones and several missiles.

- Russia launched over 600 guided air bombs on Ukraine in the last week.

Thousands protest in Venezuela after disputed election result, with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado claiming victory and government declaring President Nicolas Maduro the winner.

- Protests have erupted across Venezuela following the publication of the presidential election results.

- The opposition has claimed victory, while the government has declared President Nicolas Maduro the winner.

- At least 20 people have been killed in post-election protests, according to Human Rights Watch.

Keep in mind, we still do not know what the deal with that huge malware infection was that preceded the Venezuelan election. But I do think it is worth knowing what was going on there.


Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has addressed a mass rally in Caracas, defying government calls for her arrest. Ms Machado went into hiding earlier this week after accusing President Nicolás Maduro of defrauding the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, of a clear victory in the presidential election.

- The Venezuelan opposition claims President Maduro's re-election was rigged and that its own vote tally shows it won the election by a wide margin.

- Security forces have detained thousands of protesters, resulting in at least 11 deaths in clashes with police.

- International pressure is mounting on Venezuela to release detailed election results, with the US Secretary of State saying there is 'overwhelming evidence' that Mr Gonzalez won the election.

I am not a fan of anyone arresting political leaders unless actual crimes have been committed. In this case, crimes can be whatever the Venezuelan government wants them to be. So too it goes with all communist regimes, I suppose.

Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed at least 15 people and injured many more, with schools and civilian areas being targeted. The attacks came as a high-level Israeli delegation visited Egypt to try to revive ceasefire talks. The violence has fueled concerns of a wider Middle East war.

- At least 15 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in central Gaza.

- The attacks targeted schools and civilian areas, with many others injured.

- A high-level Israeli delegation visited Egypt to try to revive ceasefire talks, but the violence has fueled concerns of a wider Middle East war.

Several countries have urged their nationals to leave Lebanon as tensions escalate in the Middle East, with fears of a wider conflict growing.

- Multiple nations are warning their citizens to depart from Lebanon due to heightened tensions and concerns about potential conflict.

- The US has deployed additional warships and fighter jets to the region to help defend Israel against possible attacks by Iran and its proxies.

- Western officials are worried that Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia, could play a key role in any retaliation, which in turn could spark a serious Israeli response.

Russia's Rostov-on-Don submarine was sunk in Crimea, and Ukraine claims it destroyed four S-400 air defense systems protecting the peninsula. Ukrainian drones also targeted a major airfield and oil depots in Russia.

- Ukraine's military says it attacked and destroyed a Russian submarine while it was anchored at a port in the occupied Crimean peninsula.

- Ukrainian drones targeted a major airfield and oil depots in Russia, with Russia stating many of the drones were shot down.

This same sub was already hit once. But apparently, it may have been salvageable. Now it’s underwater, likely forever.

At least 32 people were killed and 63 wounded in a suicide attack by al-Shabab militants on a popular beachfront location in Mogadishu, Somalia. The attack was carried out by at least five individuals, with one attacker blowing himself up and three others being killed. One attacker was captured alive.

- Al-Shabab controls large parts of southern and central Somalia.

- The group is affiliated to al-Qaeda and has waged a brutal insurgency for nearly 20 years against the UN-backed government in Somalia.

Kamala Harris has clinched the Democratic presidential nomination with a vote of party delegates, securing the support of 2,350 delegates. She is expected to name her running mate by Monday and has been making campaign stops across battleground states. The Trump campaign has criticized her nomination process as unconventional.

• Kamala Harris has become the presumptive nominee for the Democratic presidential election.

• She secured the support of 2,350 delegates, exceeding the threshold required to earn the nomination.

• Harris is expected to name her running mate by Monday and will continue campaigning across battleground states.

We were expecting this for a while, but now it’s official. The running mate was also speculated to be chosen today, but given how bad the market has been, it’s also incredibly likely she felt it was tone-deaf to celebrate.

The US has reinstated the death penalty for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, accused mastermind of the September 11 attacks. The decision came just days after a military commission at Guantanamo Bay announced plea deals with Mohammed and his accomplices, which would have resulted in life sentences.

• Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, accused mastermind of the September 11 attacks, had his death penalty reinstated by the US.

• Plea deals were reached for Mohammed and his accomplices, but the decision to reinstate the death penalty nullified these agreements.

• The plea agreements would have resulted in life sentences for the accused.

How this went down was pretty interesting. Basically, it was overruled by SECDEF. When SECDEF loses confidence in your ability to prosecute a case, that’s a big deal. I expect some early retirements.

The Secret Service did not have access to crucial radio traffic during the July 13 shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Acting Director Ronald Rowe said the agency failed and will improve its operations going forward.

• Acting Director Ronald Rowe said the Secret Service failed in this incident and will do a better job of leveraging local systems going forward.

• The agency will deploy counter snipers at all events with presidential candidates going forward, and make sure everyone is in the same room to avoid confusion.

The World Health Organization is warning about hypervirulent strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae that can severely sicken anyone, including healthy people. These strains are resistant to multiple antibiotics and have been detected in several countries, including the US, Canada, the UK, and Japan. The WHO is urging countries to improve their surveillance efforts to better track these infections.

• The World Health Organization has identified hypervirulent strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae that can severely sicken anyone.

• These strains are resistant to multiple antibiotics and have been detected in several countries, including the US, Canada, the UK, and Japan.

• The WHO is urging countries to improve their surveillance efforts to better track these infections.

By the way, there is a lot of outbreaks of various waterborne diseases coming from Ukraine right now. Lack of potable water and lack of doctors on the front will make this continue to spiral. These hot-beds of viruses are a threat to everyone everywhere - despite how badly the WHO managed the pandemic, they are right about that.


The US is deploying additional military assets to the Middle East, including a fighter squadron, cruisers, destroyers, and an aircraft carrier strike group, in response to recent events.

• A fighter squadron will deploy to the Middle East as part of a series of moves meant to protect American forces in the region and defend Israel.

• The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group is being replaced by the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

• Additional ballistic missile- defense capable cruisers and destroyers are also being deployed to the Middle East and U.S. European Command regions.

The US has imposed sanctions on five individuals and seven companies from China, Hong Kong, and Iran accused of supplying components for Tehran’s ballistic missile and drone programs.

• The sanctions target entities involved in the procurement of accelerometers and gyroscopes essential for Iran’s missile guidance systems.

• The US has also designated a key Iranian firm, SAPA, which provides equipment and technology to the MODAFL for its ballistic missile programs.

Iran is secretly transferring its population to Syria, exporting the Iranian Revolution.

• Iran is sending tens of thousands of pro-Iranian militiamen and their families to Syria.

• The goal is to change demographics in Syria favoring the mullahs’ end goals.

• This has been done alongside Hezbollah’s direct intervention, which turned the tide of the war.

This is a pretty hot article, but basically the idea is that through proxies in various countries, it both exports it’s politics, and it’s fighters. China is doing something similar throughout the world. These aren’t just spies, though, to be clear. They take all forms.

Russia’s economy is expected to see a significant slowdown due to high interest rates and inflation. This could lead to a decline in Russian economic growth by half by the end of this year.

• High interest rates are dragging down Russian economic growth.

• Russian economic growth rate is expected to decline by half by the end of this year due to high interest rates and inflation.

Watch the rail systems in Russia. They are likely to collapse if Russia

Russia and the West have agreed to a prisoner exchange, freeing 26 people. The deal was facilitated by top-secret talks involving Biden and Putin. The swap is the largest since the Cold War.

• The prisoner exchange was negotiated through secret talks between Russia and the West.

• The agreement has freed 26 people, marking the largest such exchange since the Cold War.

• Top-secret talks involving Biden and Putin facilitated the deal.

This is a big of egg on Trump’s face who alluded to more than once that he could get a deal done when Biden could not. But it appears Putin is favoring Kamala’s politics, and is acquiescing to get cozy with her.

Raytheon partners with AVIO to build solid rocket motor production.

• Raytheon and Avio signed a contract to develop and mature solid rocket motors for defense applications.

• Avio is investing in capability and capacity to support immediate customer demand.

• The partnership aims to establish a more resilient U.S. industrial base for rocket motors.

Nvidia has reportedly delayed its next AI chip, Blackwell B200, due to a design flaw discovered unusually late in the production process.

• The delay is expected to last at least three months and will not see large numbers of chips shipped until the first quarter of next year.

• The Blackwell B200 chips are the follow-up to the popular H100 chips, which power vast swaths of the artificial intelligence cloud landscape.

Nvidia is also getting some flak for seeing big hits in their stock price. Likely due to decreased expectations for AI now that the hype has died down to some degree. Though in some ways it may really just be starting as more companies are finally getting the hardware supply they need to start their own processing.

Elon Musk predicts AI-human symbiosis with Neuralink implants, enabling people to communicate at high volume.

• Musk said Neuralink’s long-term goal is to improve AI-human symbiosis by increasing a person’s capacity to communicate at high volume.

• Neuralink plans to start with addressing damaged neurons in the spinal cord, neck or brain.

• Eventually, Neuralink aims to augment people without neurological issues, giving them superpowers.

Sensitive voter information from multiple counties in Illinois was accessible on the open internet due to unsecured databases.

• Databases containing sensitive voter information were openly accessible on the internet.

• The exposed databases included driver’s license numbers, full and partial Social Security Numbers, and documents like death certificates.

• A security researcher discovered 13 exposed databases, which were not password protected and did not require authentication to access.

I got in to look at similar issues with other states’ systems. This is unfortunately common and easy to exploit.



A state-sponsored Chinese threat actor gained access to three systems and stole research data from a government-affiliated institute in Taiwan.

• The attack began in July 2023 and involved the use of multiple malware tools, including a well-known remote-access Trojan (RAT) and a custom loader for injecting malware.

• APT41, an attribution used by several vendors to track a loose collective of China-nexus threat groups, has been engaged in various cyber espionage and financially motivated attacks globally since 2012.

• The attackers deployed the Cobalt Strike post-compromise tool on the victim network using a loader they cloned from a GitHub project, designed to evade antivirus detection tools.

A porn site, BangBros, leaked millions of user records, including sensitive information such as IP addresses, usernames, messages, and model names. The leak occurred due to an unintended configuration error in Elasticsearch, a searchable document storage system. This data could be used by hackers to trace and link adult content viewers’ habits to specific individuals, potentially causing privacy issues and embarrassment.

• A porn site, BangBros, leaked millions of user records.

• The leak included sensitive information such as IP addresses, usernames, messages, and model names.

• The leak occurred due to an unintended configuration error in Elasticsearch, a searchable document storage system.

This is how tons of US citizens get turned into operatives for other countries. I don’t know if anyone got access to it, but if they did, this will be a nightmare to contain.

The US government is suing TikTok for allegedly violating children’s privacy laws by allowing children to create accounts, interact with adults, and collect their data without parental consent. The lawsuit claims TikTok repeatedly violated the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) despite previous allegations and fines.

• The US government is suing TikTok for alleged violations of children’s privacy laws.

• TikTok is accused of allowing children to create accounts, interact with adults, and collect their data without parental consent, violating COPPA.

Okay, that’s all for now. Back to my regularly scheduled Blackhat conference. Thanks for subscribing and please send this to anyone you think could benefit from it!