RSnake Report 20240814

Kursk invaded, Hamas boycotts peace deal and more...

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Robert RSnake Hansen
August 14, 2024

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Hello, everyone, and thanks for reading the report. I'm finally back on solid ground after Blackhat and starting to catch up, but thankfully, the news never stops, so we have plenty of it!

First, let's talk about what's up in Kursk. The offensive continues with huge amounts of land being secured by the Ukrainians and morale declining on the Russian side. The Ukrainians are largely able to move about as they please, even with the newly arriving Russian forces, who are having a difficult time knowing where the Ukrainians are.

My first thought was that now that we have such a large breakout in the region, it would behoove the Ukrainians to drop off covert operatives. There are something like tens of thousands or maybe even over 100k people feeling Kursk, and who is to say that a handful of similarly dressed people wouldn't go unnoticed? Moscow is apparently similarly worried:

“threats of infiltration by reconnaissance and sabotage groups”

The memes are hilarious, obviously - first, Russia was the second-best army in the world, then they were the second-best army in Ukraine, and now they are the second-best army in Russia. Also, Ukrainians have started trolling the store owners in the region by giving them bad Yelp reviews about how bad the parking is for their tanks. Lol!

Meanwhile, some of the nay-sayers are starting to flip their stance towards Ukraine's chances for peace and maybe even giving Moscow a black eye. In this Newsweek article, they discuss how Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia does. This is partially due to bad maintenance practices and corruption, partly through attrition, and partly due to other countries giving Ukraine more resources.

That hasn't stopped small regional factions. There continues to be a slow rumble in and around Israel, and the surrounding regions continue with more attacks on US bases.

“fire started in the American base.”

To be clear here, it isn't just the Israelis that we are trying to protect in the region. It is shipping writ large. If ships cannot pass unmolested through the straits of Hormuz, that would dramatically slow the world economy, spike inflation, and cause massive fallout for our ability to project economic power through spending.

“delays and spikes in cost which is leading to inflation”

Israel isn't just sitting by, though. They have hit a number of locations in Jordan in particular, taking out Hezbollah forces and equipment related to the regular but small quantities of rockets that are being lobbed over the border. They haven't stopped taking out key Hamas forces either:

“31 terrorists elimitated”

Hamas, for their part, has said they are boycotting the ceasefire talks in Doha, which is about returning the remaining hostages. There were some rumors they said they wanted Israel to voluntarily ceasefire before Hamas would entertain ceasefire talks. You read that right. Iran has also said they won't attend. Shocker. Just a reminder, Iran likely sees Hamas as useful idiots in their role of keeping Israel busy. The enemy of my enemy is my friend sorta thing.

In related news, someone just stole a lot of data from Iranian banks. Is this simply a coincidence of timing or something leading up to something more?

“Hackers have stolen data from Central Bank of Iran and several other banks”

The current thinking is that via back channels, Iran was warned that its nuclear power was at risk of attack. The rumblings are that we also warned them that their principal terminal on Khark Island, where oil is shipped, is distinctly easy to destroy. The combination of those two targets being destroyed would significantly impact their energy industry and economy, with virtually no loss of life due to the attacks themselves. The aftermath, though, could be staggering.

That hasn't stopped Iran from saber-rattling with military test operations near the border and around Tehran, and many of the leaders have left the city, likely in fear of a preemptive strike. Oh yeah, and they also are now leaking that they are working on a nuclear detonator. Fun...

“the “Detonator” is the final piece to make a Nuclear Weapon.”

As every day slips by, the Iranian leadership looks weaker in the eyes of their allies, and Israel and the US get more prepared as our warships steam closer and a $20BN weapon deal is secured. This kind of news will only make people in the region more likely to believe that Israel would seriously consider a preemptive attack with US support, similar to the numerous assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and Stuxnet and the time Israel blew up Assad's reactor. Only time will tell.

Okay, on with the news!

PS> We added a new section to separate the Business from the other news.

The Philippine government has filed a diplomatic protest against China after Chinese jets flew close to a Philippine patrol plane and fired flares over a disputed area in the South China Sea. The Chinese military claims the Philippine aircraft illegally entered their airspace, while the Philippines condemns the action as dangerous and unjustified.

- The Philippines filed a diplomatic protest against China due to Chinese jets firing flares near a Philippine patrol plane.

- The incident occurred over a disputed South China Sea area.

- China claims the Philippine aircraft entered its airspace illegally, while the Philippines condemns the action as dangerous.

This will continue to happen until China officially gets their hands slapped. China has no incentive at all to stop encroaching on nearby countries sovereign territory. It will likely take something quite large, like enormous global sanctions or war to temper this behavior.

America is preparing for a new nuclear arms race, which could start as early as 2026. The U.S. is concerned about the possibility of facing multiple nuclear threats simultaneously from Russia, China, and North Korea.

- America is preparing for a new nuclea -arms race that may begin in 2026.

- The U.S. is worried about managing multiple nuclear threats from Russia, China, and North Korea at the same time.

Cold war three here we come. Keep in mind here, if Iran is successful we will have yet another concern on our hands, and the theory is they may have enough nuclear material for a number of warheads.

Iran has threatened a retaliatory strike on Israel over the assassination of Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh, drawing major world powers into a high-stakes diplomatic effort. The situation risks escalating into a wider regional conflict involving Iran, Israel, and other Middle Eastern countries, with global powers like the U.S., Russia, and China getting involved.

- Iran threatens retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh.

- Global powers are engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider regional war.

- The U.S., Russia, and China are all involved in managing the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Diplomacy is the name of the game. There is a lot the west could do for Iran, it doesn’t all have to be the stick. The regime may actually know this, and if they are wise they can use their grievances for other concessions. War is the least good option here.

Ukrainian forces launched a significant cross-border raid into Russia's Kursk region, overwhelming Russian defenses and exposing vulnerabilities. The raid aimed to boost Ukrainian morale and force Russia to divert resources, but it faced challenges from a delayed and disorganized Russian military response.

- Ukrainian forces conducted a significant raid into Russia's Kursk region.

- The raid exposed Russian vulnerabilities and aimed to boost Ukrainian morale.

- Russia's military response was delayed and disorganized due to most of its forces being engaged in the eastern Donetsk region.

I have heard numbers as high as 100 square miles are being held. Not sure if that is right or not, but if so, that is nothing to scoff at. I doubt Ukraine will be taking Moscow anytime soon, but sabotage operations against military and industry are definitely in store if Russia cannot secure their border.

Britain, France, and Germany have urged Iran to avoid attacking Israel amid tensions following Israel's military actions against Iranian targets and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The European nations warned that further aggression could escalate regional conflict and jeopardize a ceasefire agreement aimed at freeing hostages held by Hamas. 

- Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement asking Iran to refrain from attacking Israel.

- Iran previously launched drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for attacks on Iranian officials and assets.

- European leaders warned that any further attacks could escalate regional tensions and harm negotiations for a ceasefire and hostages' release.

Houthi forces have seized the UN Human Rights Office in Sanaa, Yemen, taking documents, furniture, and vehicles. The UN has condemned the act and suspended operations in Houthi-controlled areas, although it continues to work in regions controlled by Yemen's internationally recognized government.

- Houthi forces took over the UN Human Rights Office in Sanaa.

- The UN suspended operations in Houthi-controlled areas following the seizure.

- The UN continues its operations in areas controlled by Yemen's recognized government.

The US has arrested Mexico's most-wanted drug lord, Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada, who was brought to the US by a son of another cartel leader, Joaquín Guzmán López. Mexican prosecutors are considering bringing treason charges against those involved in the plot, citing an article in Mexico's penal code that defines treason as illegally abducting someone and handing them over to authorities of another country.

- The US has arrested Mexico's most-wanted drug lord, Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada.

- Mexican prosecutors are considering bringing treason charges against those involved in the plot.

- The arrest was arranged by a son of another cartel leader, Joaquín Guzmán López, who flew to the US to turn himself in.

The US Air Force has avoided cleaning up PFAS-contaminated water due to the Supreme Court's Chevron ruling, which limits the power of federal agencies. The decision has sparked scrutiny over FEMA funding decisions and their impact on environmental regulations. 

- The US Air Force is avoiding cleaning up PFAS-contaminated water due to a Supreme Court ruling.

- The Chevron ruling limits the power of federal agencies and has sparked scrutiny over FEMA funding decisions.

This is one of the largest rulings by SCOTUS in years. I think it will be quite a few years yet before we see how many other government programs are pulled back. EPA is just one example, but so are things like the DEA’s rulings, the SEC rulings, the DPS rulings, the ATF rulings and so many others.

Elon Musk clashed with EU Commissioner Thierry Breton after being warned about non-compliance with the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA). Musk's provocative response highlighted his different handling of regulations in Europe compared to China, where he is more cautious due to Tesla's significant manufacturing presence there. 

- Elon Musk clashed with EU Commissioner Thierry Breton over compliance with the Digital Services Act.

- Musk used a provocative response towards the EU official’s warning.

- Musk's cautious approach to China contrasts with his handling of EU regulations.

If you haven’t seen the memes Elon posted… well, you just have to see it to believe it. My words won’t do it justice.

A ship in the Red Sea was attacked three times by suspected Houthi rebels, involving bomb-carrying drones. These attacks are part of ongoing tensions related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, potentially backed by Iran, and have disrupted maritime trade routes.

- A ship in the Red Sea was attacked three times, involving explosive drones.

- The suspected attackers are Houthi rebels, possibly supported by Iran.

- These attacks are disrupting crucial maritime trade routes amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

I cannot recommend the book ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ enough if you want to start getting a grasp on where this is all headed. He is a bit left leaning with regard to replacing the US population with immigrants as a solution to the government disincentivizing domestic population solutions, but the premise is very interesting nonetheless.

The Pentagon has announced new guidelines to limit troops' exposure to blasts and is implementing long-term cognitive assessments for affected personnel. This aims to understand and mitigate the impacts of blast overpressure on cognitive health throughout a military career.

- The Pentagon released guidelines for safe distances from blasts.

- New cognitive assessments will monitor troops' brain health from early career stages.

- Blast overpressure exposure can lead to various cognitive and health issues.

Speaking as someone who has had to deal with the tragedy of losing someone due to hallucinations caused by cognitive decline, likely caused by traumatic brain injury, I cannot say enough how important this line of thinking is. It could have a huge effect on suicides for veterans, that otherwise were previously chalked up to PTSD, or drugs/alcohol. Those mask the real underlying brain trauma in many cases.

DARPA is launching a new initiative, TRACTOR, to fund research into creating automated tools for converting C code to Rust. The goal is to enhance software security by reducing memory-safety errors common in C code. 

- DARPA aims to replace C code with Rust using the TRACTOR program.

- The initiative seeks to develop automated translators to convert C code to Rust.

- This effort could significantly reduce memory-safety vulnerabilities in software.

The US Army plans to choose a few teams from a larger pool to compete to develop its Enduring High Energy Laser system for short-range air defense. The service will carry teams through design and development and plans to select a winner to build an enduring HEL in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

- The US Army is developing its Enduring High Energy Laser system for short-range air defense.

- The service will choose a few teams from a larger pool to compete to develop the system and plans to select a winner in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

- The Army has evaluated 10-, 20-, 50- and 300-kilowatt options for a wide variety of threats and missions.

Speed will be the name of the game when hypersonic air-breathing missiles become more readily available. We won’t have time to intercept some of these faster low-flying missile systems. We just need faster targeting and higher power lasers. Then the problem becomes line of sight.

The launch of U.S. Space Force Col. Nick Hague to the International Space Station has been delayed due to ongoing issues with the Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which has left two astronauts stranded in space for months. NASA is considering various options to return the astronauts safely, including potential rescue missions involving Hague's Crew-9 mission.

- The launch of U.S. Space Force Col. Nick Hague to the ISS is delayed.

- Ongoing issues with Boeing Starliner have stranded two astronauts in space.

- NASA is exploring options to return the astronauts safely, including potential rescue missions.

I continue to track this more out of amusement than anything. Poor Boeing. Speaking of Boeing, the next article goes into some of their successes…

Boeing's Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) seeker program has achieved record-breaking production levels in 2024, driven by improved manufacturing processes and supply chain stability. The PAC-3 seekers are critical for intercepting advanced threats and are being adopted by 17 countries, including Ukraine, to enhance their missile defense capabilities.

- Boeing's PAC-3 seeker program has set new production records in 2024.

- Improved manufacturing processes and supply chain stability contributed to increased production.

- PAC-3 seekers are used by 17 countries for intercepting advanced threats including missiles and aircraft.

As we have previously discussed, these PAC-3 systems are much more capable. I think that is one of the reason the airspace is largely uncontested over Kursk.

 

Apple plans to release a new iPhone SE that will feature advanced capabilities, including AI features currently available only on high-end models. Despite being a budget model, the new SE will include powerful hardware and improved design elements from earlier iPhone versions.

- Apple will launch a new iPhone SE with advanced AI capabilities.

- The new SE model will recycle design elements and cameras from older iPhone versions.

- Despite its lower price, the new SE will feature powerful performance and hardware.

As recently as today, Apple just launched their beta software if you subscribe to their beta release. I haven’t tested it personally, but just an FYI, it is available and in the description it says it does support these upcoming features that are set to be GA in Fall.

Google is holding a 'Made by Google' event on August 13th to reveal its new Pixel phone lineup, including the Pixel 9 Pro and a new foldable phone. The event will also likely include updates on other products like the next Pixel Watch, wireless Buds, and more. 

- Google's 'Made by Google' event is scheduled for August 13th.

- The event will feature new phone releases, including the Pixel 9 Pro and a new foldable phone.

- Other product updates may include information on the next Pixel Watch, wireless Buds, and more.

Google flubbed their demo of their AI products recently, so I think there will be a lot more scrutiny about making sure that the next time they do a product review it will have more care paid to it before they walk on stage.

An X Spaces event featuring a discussion between Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump crashed due to an alleged DDoS attack. The event eventually began 42 minutes late, with Musk attributing the disruption to opposition against Trump.

- Elon Musk and Donald Trump's X Spaces event crashed due to a supposed DDoS attack.

- The event started 42 minutes late.

- Musk linked the attack to resistance against Trump.

The UN has advanced a treaty aimed at combating cross-border cybercrime. Still, critics argue it lacks human rights safeguards and could be used by repressive governments against journalists and researchers. The treaty requires technology firms to aid in investigations, which some say could lead to misuse and legal risks for various groups.

- The UN has advanced a treaty to combat cross-border cybercrime.

- Critics argue that the treaty lacks adequate human rights safeguards.

- The treaty requires tech firms to assist in investigations, raising concerns about misuse and legal risks.

A mass phishing campaign has been discovered by Ukraine's CERT-UA, targeting over 100 government devices and posing as the country's Security Service. 

- The emails contain a link to download a file called 'Document.zip' that triggers a download of the MSI-file.

- This file launches malware called ANONVNC, allowing attackers to gain unauthorized access to victim devices.

- CERT-UA has identified over 100 affected devices and recommends users contact them if suspicious activity is detected.

Interestingly some systems think that that filename is a domain. We really have made a mess of the domain name system and TLDs.

The FBI announced it has taken down the servers and domains of the Radar/Dispossessor ransomware and extortion gang. This gang had exploited security flaws in companies' systems to steal and encrypt data, demanding ransoms to prevent the release of this information.

- The FBI seized the servers of the Radar/Dispossessor ransomware gang.

- Radar/Dispossessor had 43 victim companies since August 2023.

- The gang stole and encrypted data, demanding ransoms to prevent data release.

In 2024, over one billion records have been stolen in several major data breaches, impacting companies like UnitedHealth, AT&T, and Snowflake. These breaches have exposed vast amounts of personal and sensitive data, affecting hundreds of millions of individuals globally and causing significant disruptions in various sectors.

- Over one billion records have been stolen in significant data breaches in 2024.

- Major companies affected include UnitedHealth, AT&T, and Snowflake.

- The breaches have exposed sensitive personal data and caused widespread disruptions.

Just you wait until the election! Gonna see a lot more exfiltration, I think. We saw a huge uptick leading up to Venezuela’s election, I see no reason other countries won’t see similar big spikes.

The majority of U.S. businesses are concerned about compliance with the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), with 83% expressing concerns. 

- The CTA has been in effect since January 2024, aiming to give law enforcement more tools to protect national security and fight corruption.

- A majority (83%) of senior in-house legal and compliance executives are concerned about their organization's compliance with the CTA.

- The main concerns include lack of guidance on non-U.S. entities, high fees and costs, and a lack of understanding around penalties for non-compliance.

There are not only fines but potential prison time involved here. So yes, there is valid reason to be concerned. This is bipartisan and was designed to stop illicit financial transactions. It gives more transparency to FINCEN and stops offshore influence. Think stopping terrorism, bribes, etc.

The UK's unemployment rate has dropped to 4.2% and wage growth has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years.

- The UK's unemployment rate has unexpectedly dropped to 4.2%.

- Wage growth, excluding bonuses, has slowed to 5.4%, the lowest since August 2022.

- The data hints at a cooling labor market, which may influence further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.

I am not sure if they are playing the same games we do where after a certain time we don’t count people as unemployed because they don’t have a chance of being employed, and we count people who lose their jobs and re-gain a job as new jobs. So take this all with a grain of salt.

China has reported record-high withdrawals of foreign direct investment, totaling $15 billion in the last quarter. This marks only the second decline in such investments, indicating potential economic challenges ahead.

- China experienced a record $15 billion in FDI withdrawals last quarter.

- This is only the second time foreign direct investment has declined in China.

- The decline in foreign investment indicates potential economic issues for China.

The S&P 500 experienced its worst trading day since 2022 but quickly recovered, ending the week nearly flat. The market's swift rebound was driven by traders realizing that fears of an impending recession and a Japanese stock market selloff had been overstated.

- S&P 500 had its worst trading day since 2022.

- The market quickly recovered, driven by traders perceiving the fears to be overstated.

- The S&P 500 ended the week nearly flat.

I kinda figured this would happen. It was a short term adjustment while people moved money around, not a long-term indicator. Glad to see that was the case after all.

A survey by Gartner, Inc. reveals that digital transformations in logistics often fail because leaders do not seriously address team resistance. Engaging teams from the start and incorporating their feedback increases the success rate of these transformations.

- 76% of logistics transformations fail due to unmet budgets, timelines, or performance metrics.

- Addressing team resistance and incorporating feedback improves transformation success by 62%.

- Using a collaborative approach rather than a top-down directive boosts chances of success.

Fintech company Tally, which raised $172 million in funding, has shut down after running out of cash. Despite having a significant number of employees and a high valuation, the company was unable to secure the necessary funding to continue its operations.

- Tally, founded in 2015, helped consumers manage and pay off their credit card debt.

- The company was valued at $855 million and had 183 employees before shutting down.

- Tally was unable to secure additional funding to continue its operations.

This is another case of the kamikaze-business model. These out of control valuations are never a good idea, except for large VCs. Everyone else gets hurt. This is like putting a cake in the oven at 700 degrees hoping it’ll get done twice as fast. It really does not work that way. I’ll be talking a lot more about this coming up, I think. It’s an area of passion for me.

Thank you so much for reading and please remember to send this to anyone who you think might get value out of reading it. That's the only way we can grow.