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- RSnake Report 20240827
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Hello, and thanks for reading! A quick note about the newsletter format: previously, I had built a lot of automation to help me process the news, but I never had anything for X.com, which has a ton of useful news. Over the weekend, I built some tech to make processing the crazy amounts of accounts I follow simpler, so expect to see more screenshots and references that I find interesting in this and future newsletters. With that, onto the report!
Let’s start with the latest $125M round of military aid from the US. I expect there will likely be at least one more round by the end of December, especially if Kamala loses the election, to attempt to future-proof the Ukraine conflict from Trump, who has previously indicated that he wants to stop payments to Ukraine.
“$125 million”
Depending on how the Ukrainians use that cash, it can go a long way. For instance, there are new cardboard-based drones as nations are racing to the bottom in terms of getting more cheap drones onto the battlefield. There is a lot of analysis around moving away from “platinum bullets” that, while super effective, are also super expensive. One interesting finding is that cheaper drones also allow you to justify attacking less important targets.
One thing I did think was interesting is that in a lot of the footage you can see the Ukrainian FPV drones’ feed going to static ~1 second before they hit the target. That is likely due to jamming, which means that the Russians are attempting to jam the transmission/control feed, but their jamming equipment is far too weak, and as a result, they are effectively jamming too late. As long as the FPV kamikaze drones have a separate explosive package detonated via impact, it doesn’t matter if they lose signal as long as they are on a flight path that brings them close enough to the target on crash-landing.
We had previously discussed attacks against energy, and I see no reason this will slow down. But, we are seeing other innovations on the Russian side, like anti-drone cages and nets around oil tanks.
“anti drone cages and nets”
Russia’s air defense is to the point where they feel the need to use painted-on aircraft to attempt to deter drones and get them to attack areas with no aircraft. The Internet did not think the Russian art was very good.
“Art.”
Sabotage operations have begun on contested Russian soil. 18 soldiers were stabbed to death in a field camp in Crimea. I suspect more of this will happen deeper inside Russia soon. There was a big uptick in attacks from Russia this week. Russia hit a Ukrainian hydro plant, which, if breached, could lead to the death of thousands of people below the dam. This is coming at a time when fresh water is dangerously low for the Russians.
Meanwhile the Russians have started using tires as some sort of drone defense, which, if I hadn’t see it for myself, I would have assumed was a joke. It’s not, and apparently used widely, even on airplanes. For those of you not super familiar with armor, the very last thing you want is flammable armor. 🔥 🔥 🔥
Tire covered transport
Last time, we discussed a little about how sanctions are affecting Russia because I think a lot of people think they aren’t working. They are, but, maybe not in the exact ways people were expecting. The latest chemical that Russia is low on is a class of chemicals called polymethylene phenyl isocyanates which affect things that need foams and sealants.
The sanctions also having a huge effect on ruble inflation, causing it to skyrocket as high as 40% for some commodities, causing/forcing Russia to nationalize some things that are no longer profitable. Nationalization has historically never worked well for Russia. It turns out they know nothing about running those companies. In other cases, this inflation causes companies to flee. The problem with leaving, though, is that they can actually lose money, not just break even during the sale, due to very strict rules placed on companies attempting to leave. And when they do leave, the new owners don’t know how to run the companies and end up folding, driving inflation higher.
Now, there are public calls to start execute liberals. And speaking of murdering their own people, there is also an interesting video where a front-line soldier responds to calls to kill soldiers who are fleeing the front. In that video he explains that conscripts are allowed to fire six bullets total before being put on the front line. It’s a hot mess over there in Russia, and is about to get a lot worse over the next year.
I think it’s worth mentioning this because Kamala is considering doing some sort of price ceiling on food, which has historically and could again lead to shortages. There are tons of articles about this. We will get to watch this play out in Russia with other verticals and commodities, but maybe not fast enough to be a warning to US voters who are less familiar with economics. The US public generally feels that things are worse financially, though, so perhaps clearer heads can prevail, or Kamala may quietly walk this dangerous policy proposal back.
In other news, Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov was arrested in France on an array of charges related to numerous charges, including complicity in cybercrime activities, child abuse materials, organized fraud, narcotics distribution, and violations concerning cryptographic tools and services. This is a very thorny situation because it points to issues with free speech. At the same time, Telegram is considered a military target by many because many soldiers use Telegram in Russia due to its encrypted and ephemeral private messaging. There are allegations about France trying to ruin free speech and others saying Telegram has censored channels in the past, so why selectively censor?
But many of the chats aren’t private, and even private chats likely have metadata of use. The situation has many .mil bloggers in Russia very worried about what this arrest will mean for Russian forces. That they don’t have professional comms tools for their fighting force is rather telling of the state of security in Russia.
“lack of normal secret communications”
Meanwhile, freedom of speech on social platforms is now a very hot topic. Rumble’s CEO, Chris Pavlovski has fled France for fear of the same fate. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is in the crosshairs in the EU for not censoring its platform. I would not be surprised if X has to pull out of the EU entirely. Alternatively, the US could sanction countries that go after US companies that exercise freedom of speech. ByteDance (TikTok) has less than a year to divest itself, or it will get shut down. This will be an interesting one to follow.
“Absurd…” or is it?
For his part, Zuckerburg has joined the free-speech trend and has announced what we always knew to be true. The government pressured Facebook to censor anti-COVID posts and humor. Does this mean he’s out of the business of censorship? I think not. But it begs the question, why announce it?
Now, onto Israel, where apparently 6000 rockets/drones were ready to be fired by Hezbollah. Due to approximately 100 Israeli aircraft, they destroyed all but 320 of the rockets/drones before they were even fired. Of those, only two that I could find weren’t intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome. One hit a small watercraft, killing one soldier and injuring a few more. The other hit a chicken coop—the memes…. oh man, the memes.
“Hezbollah struck a chicken coop”
At a weapon-to-kill ratio of 6000:1, that has got to be the worst large-scale offensive operation in modern history. And now, with that stunningly impotent attack, Hezbollah announced: mission “successful.” 🤡 Technically, Hezbollah isn’t Iran, though, so the will-they-won’t-they scare is still reasonable, albeit reduced threat coming from Iran. I am sure their leaders were embarrassed by how badly Hezbollah performed and aren’t interested in seeing how much better they fare in a head-on conflict with Israel and the United States. The Saudis seem pretty tired of this situation.
“Successful and is now Complete”
But in a shocking turn of events, for some reason, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is now open to talking to the United States about their nuclear program once again. It feels like whiplash, but also, perhaps a lot of this was strategically useful to Iran to give them political cover for wanting to discuss the lifting of sanctions. Ultimately a good thing, but what a weird long road to get here, and how many chickens had to die for it! 🐔 Also, someone remind me to print out a picture of myself to use on stage at future conferences.
“this doesn’t mean we can’t engage with them when necessary”
On the nuclear front Russia is said to be in internal discussions about it’s nuclear arsenal and when it is appropriate to use it while missiles are flying over their country daily now. All this has got to make Russia rethink making any sudden moves that might invoke NATO Article 5. Russia’s allies haven’t proven to be very capable, or good at dipolomacy. Let’s also not forget that no NATO countries have gotten meaningfully involved yet.
A few more quick things, Libya has stopped production of oil and halted all exports, leading to a slight increase in world cost for oil — perhaps around 3%. Canada is introducing a 100% tariff on electric cars from China. And the rail strike in Canada has, for now, concluded.
Okay, onto the articles!
The United States' military withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised significant issues regarding the fate of American citizens and Afghan allies left behind. Over two decades, thousands of American service members were involved in efforts aimed at defeating the Taliban and nation-building, but the chaotic exit has led to questions about the efficacy of that mission and the implications for U.S. foreign policy.
The U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in the abandonment of American citizens and Afghan allies.
The exit sparked debates over the effectiveness and legitimacy of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan.
Many veterans are grappling with feelings of regret and questioning the purpose of their service.
This will go down as one of the worst failings in US history. The Taliban openly parades US equipment as a prize, and to their credit, it is the spoils of war. But it did not have to go down that way.
Source: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/08/27/america_surrendered_in_afghanistan_1053892.html
China is launching a mega-constellation of satellites to provide global satellite internet services, which could help Beijing export its model of digital authoritarianism worldwide. This could enable other governments to adopt similar censorship and surveillance practices, restricting human rights globally. China's satellite internet services would also make countries more vulnerable to cyber espionage and subject to Chinese data laws, potentially allowing authorities to access user data.
China is launching a mega-constellation of satellites to provide global satellite internet services
This could enable other governments to adopt similar censorship and surveillance practices, restricting human rights globally
China's satellite internet services would also make countries more vulnerable to cyber espionage and subject to Chinese data laws
Just do not use the CCP satellites, my friends. Not even once. This is an intelligent tactic, though. The NSA has long owned most of the pipes across the ocean floor, especially the transpacific pipes. There was a massive story that disappeared when an AT&T whistleblower found one of the listening stations in San Francisco, on 45 Freemont Street.
The competition for critical mineral supplies necessary for military and commercial technologies is intensifying between China and the United States, particularly in Tanzania and its infrastructure projects. As China expands its influence through investment in rail and port projects, the U.S. is attempting to counter this by proposing alternatives like the Lobito Corridor to improve access to these vital resources.
China's investments in Tanzanian infrastructure are crucial for their access to critical minerals.
The U.S. is seeking to offer competitive investment alternatives to secure its own access to these resources.
China is playing a long-gam game here, and they know it. The more mineral rights they can secure, the better for their future. The problem is, they need to ship that raw material somehow, and in an actual conflict scenario, of this would be denied to them. So this only works as a peace-time stop-gap.
Russia is reportedly considering the use of chemical weapons in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine as military failures prompt desperation for new strategies. The potential deployment of such weapons, including banned agents, could significantly escalate the humanitarian crisis and disrupt Ukraine's defense capabilities. International monitoring and responses are crucial in addressing this serious development amidst the conflict.
Russia is exploring more severe military tactics, including possible chemical weapons use, due to ongoing challenges in the war against Ukraine.
The use of chemical agents could violate international laws and lead to significant loss of life and humanitarian crises.
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) plays a key role in monitoring and responding to potential chemical attacks.
This kind of escalation would be absolutely the kind of thing Russia would do and also would sink them even further in public opinion. It would open the door to a lot of retaliatory things that the world has been trying to avoid doing. The sanctions leave a lot of back doors that could all get slammed shut, for instance. China could easily get sanctioned to death for its part in supplying materials and buying oil from Russia. Not to mention it would bring us from WWII trench warfare tactics to WWI chemical weapon tactics. What’s next after that? Throwing rocks?
Russia has unleashed a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine targeting energy infrastructure, resulting in at least three deaths and widespread power cuts across the country. The attack, which began around midnight, continued beyond daybreak and targeted 15 Ukrainian regions. Ukraine's Prime Minister called on allies to provide long-range weapons to destroy the place where Russian missiles are launched.
Russia has fired drones, cruise missiles, and hypersonic ballistic Kinzhal missiles at 15 Ukrainian regions
At least three people were killed and power cuts were reported across the country
Ukraine's Prime Minister called on allies to provide long-range weapons to destroy the place where Russian missiles are launched
Russia has intercepted 22 Ukrainian drones overnight and in the morning over eight Russian regions
There was also a British man working with Reuters who was killed in the missile strike. This is claimed to have been a Russian Iskander-M missile. There were quite a few missile strikes deep into Ukraine over the last day or so, which is to be expected, as is a greater counter-offensive. There is another good article about it here.
Russian forces are advancing towards the strategically significant Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, which serves as a crucial logistics hub for military operations in the Donbas region. The Ukrainian military is facing increasing pressure to defend the area while evacuations of civilians are underway due to the approaching threat. If Pokrovsk falls, it could have widespread consequences for Ukraine's defensive positions and military supply lines.
Russian troops are less than 10 km from Pokrovsk, a vital logistics center.
The Ukrainian military is at risk as Russian offensives continue to intensify.
Evacuations of civilians have been ordered due to the imminent threat to the town.
I will keep following this one, but I would be a bit surprised if the Ukrainian military didn’t have some plan for this. They have been fairly crafty about letting Russia overextend itself only to pincer them from the flank. We’ll see, though.
Russia lost an additional 1,190 soldiers and 47 artillery systems in the war against Ukraine over the past 24 hours.
Russian forces have lost a significant number of personnel, including 1,190 military personnel killed or wounded.
Russia's total combat losses in the war against Ukraine are estimated to be approximately 607,680 military personnel and 17,396 artillery systems.
Those losses continue to mount, so yes, while they are making some progress in Pokrovsk, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is just another meat grinder.
The Horn of Africa is on the cusp of war due to Ethiopia's expansionist ambitions and Somalia's sovereignty being threatened.
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has expansionist ambitions and is seeking to make Ethiopia a coastal state by force.
Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity are being threatened, recalling Ethiopia's destructive history in the country.
This is home to a lot of Islamic fighters and pirates as well. This whole area is ripe for tribal conflict.
Israeli Air Force preempts Hezbollah attack on Tel Aviv with major strikes in South Lebanon, targeting missile launchers and terror targets. The IDF had detected the terror group was at readiness for an imminent attack on Israeli civilians.
IAF hit Hezbollah's planned 1000 missiles, including advanced and highly accurate ones.
6000 aerial weapons were taken out by the IDF, including rockets, ballistic missiles, and drones.
Public shelters were opened across Israel while new restrictions were placed in northern areas.
The amount of intelligence that the IDF had to know to pull this off is incredible. Hezbollah and Iran both have got to be scratching their heads about how many intelligence leaks they’ve allowed on their watch.
Law enforcement officials are searching for an individual following a mass stabbing attack in Solingen, Germany that left several people dead. The suspect targeted multiple necks of his victims during the 'Festival of Diversity' event. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack.
A mass stabbing attack occurred at a festival in Solingen, Germany, resulting in multiple fatalities.
The suspect targeted the necks of his victims and shouted 'Allahu Akbar' during the attack.
ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack as revenge against Muslims in Palestine.
This is not good news for the people attacked or the political parties that want to keep their borders open. People do not like this kind of thing on their soil and tends to make them vote differently. Also, as a side note, clearly, guns aren’t the problem. Evil doesn’t care how it manifests.
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader, frequently disguises himself as a woman in Gaza due to ongoing military operations. Israeli forces have come close to capturing him on multiple occasions. The practice of dressing up as the opposite sex is generally considered taboo in Islam and Judaism.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar disguises himself as a woman in Gaza to avoid capture
Israeli forces have come close to capturing Sinwar on multiple occasions due to their knowledge of his tunnel network
I was assured Hamas had no crossdressers.
NASA has decided that astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams will remain on the International Space Station (ISS) until February 2025, extending their mission significantly beyond the planned eight days.
NASA astronauts will stay on the ISS until early 2025 due to complications with the Boeing Starliner.
Boeing's Starliner experienced technical issues, leading to a delay in the astronauts' return.
This mission is part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program, which aims to utilize commercial spacecraft for crew transportation to and from the ISS.
That’s a lot of bad press over a very long time scale for Boeing. It’s the right call, and Boeing is probably begrudgingly in agreement. They are going to have to make some tough economic decisions. This article goes into more.
Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, was detained in France due to investigation into insufficient moderation on the app, with accusations of failure to curb criminal uses and co-operate with law enforcement over various offenses. The app claims its moderation is within industry standards and improving. Mr Durov's detention has been extended and could last up to 96 hours.
Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, was detained in France for investigation into insufficient moderation on the app.
The app claims its moderation is within industry standards and improving.
Elon Musk's revamped Twitter Blue subscription service was launched with significant concerns from employees about its potential dangers, including harassment campaigns and SWAT team misdirection.
Employees were worried that users would rely on the verified badges to access real information, but could instead be hijacked for malicious purposes.
Concerns included accounts buying verification badges to launch harassment campaigns and direct SWAT teams to people's homes.
This is so much less bad than how it used to be. Tempest in a teapot in many ways.
LLMs are increasingly being applied to root cause analysis in cloud incident management, prompting concerns about their effectiveness compared to human experts. The reliance on LLMs could potentially undermine the development of new safety engineers and the deep understanding required for effective RCA. Automation surprises and the inherent limitations of LLMs raise critical questions about their reliability and the implications for system safety and engineering practices.
LLMs are being used for root cause analysis in cloud incidents, which may hinder the hiring and training of human engineers.
The efficacy of LLMs in conducting thorough RCA is questioned, with fears of automation surprises impacting safety.
There is a risk that early success with LLMs may lead companies to overlook the necessary human expertise in engineering.
As someone who uses LLMs often while programming I know all too well how unsafe they actually are. They make tons of mistakes, erase important things, add other things they shouldn’t forget to add very important controls, etc. It’s almost worse than just doing it solo. That said, I can produce 3-4x the amount of code, and I am already a fast programmer. Debugging is way faster, and some functions really are simple to write, just painstakingly slow. Today alone, I wrote 92 lines of code and refactored another 50 before my first meeting of the day with the help of an LLM, and it all works great. Is it safe? Absolutely not - that is why you need an excellent programmer to babysit it.
Canada has enacted a law targeting greenwashing practices, imposing significant penalties on businesses that make unsupported environmental claims. The law allows private citizens to initiate investigations, leading to increased regulatory scrutiny and potential class actions against companies. This follows similar action by the European Union and may prompt businesses to either improve transparency in environmental claims or retreat from making such claims altogether.
Canada's new law penalizes companies for making unsubstantiated environmental claims.
The law allows private citizens to instigate inquiries into potential greenwashing.
The law may lead to companies being more cautious about their environmental marketing.
I think we are going to see some lawsuits aimed at those fake carbon credit organizations we discussed in the last newsletter.
Johnson & Johnson has acquired Israeli medical device company V-Wave in a $600M deal, expanding its cardiovascular treatment offerings. The acquisition is expected to close before the end of 2024 and will be accounted for as an asset acquisition.
Johnson & Johnson has acquired Israeli medical device company V-Wave in a $600M deal.
The acquisition will expand Johnson & Johnson's cardiovascular treatment offerings and bring V-Wave's novel implantable devices to patients with heart failure.
Expect to see more of these devices in your loved ones soon. Let’s hope someone with actual security know-how is assessing these things.
Stripe's API presents challenges for businesses, particularly in calculating Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) and managing financial data. Companies relying on Stripe are facing high costs due to additional transaction fees for accessing data through its premium products, while open-source alternatives offer potentially more manageable solutions for financial management.
Stripe's API is difficult for businesses to use, especially for calculating MRR.
Third-party tools and open-source alternatives may provide better financial management solutions.
Stripe's pricing strategy involves additional costs for accessing data, which can burden companies with many transactions.
As someone who has had to implement a lot of payment processors in my day, I cannot wait until someone replaces Stripe. It’s awful.
Source: https://github.com/getlago/lago/wiki/Stripe-Data-vs-Open%E2%80%90Source-Alternatives:-a-MRR-example
Sophisticated cyberattack enablement tools are being used to launch large-scale bot attacks, particularly targeting CAPTCHA systems. Threat actors can easily bypass traditional defenses and exploit advanced technologies to create fake accounts.
A sophisticated cyberattack enablement tool called Greasy Opal is being used to execute volumetric bot attacks, particularly targeting CAPTCHA systems.
Threat actors can easily bypass traditional defenses and exploit advanced technologies to create fake accounts at scale.
Speaking as someone who is on their advisory board (for an excellent reason), I recommend switching away from all of that garbage and starting using Arkose Labs. Trust me - it’s so much better thought out. I say that both as full disclosure but, also because I honestly think their systems are far better thought out.
Microsoft is planning to hold a Windows Security Summit on September 10 to collaborate with endpoint security partners, including CrowdStrike, following a significant outage that caused widespread disruptions and an estimated $5.4 billion in losses for Fortune 500 companies. The summit aims to discuss improvements in cyber resiliency and critical infrastructure to prevent future incidents by focusing on system design and security practices.
Microsoft is hosting a summit to address cybersecurity issues after a major outage.
The summit will focus on improving system resiliency and preventing future disruptions.
So, this would be separate from Bluehat. It's less of a security awareness summit and more of a “Hey guys, we have a real problem here; we can’t let a single vendor take out most Windows systems on the Internet by accident.” I’ll be curious to hear what they decide from that summit. A host of new requirements for vendors to use very carefully crafted APIs that MS will certify is my guess.
A cyberattack using stealth techniques has targeted military and governmental organizations in Southeast Asia, employing methods like AppDomainManager Injection to execute malicious code. The attackers utilized phishing emails with disguised MSC files, leading to the execution of malware on systems belonging to Taiwanese, Philippine, and Vietnamese entities.
Attackers are using a new stealth technique called GrimResource to infect high-level organizations.
The attacks target military and government sectors in Southeast Asia, particularly through phishing emails.
AppDomainManager Injection allows malware to execute with less detection by manipulating application domains.
Attribution is difficult, but this seems like it likely has China’s hands on it. They are very interested in ensuring that the region acts in their best interest.
The Dutch privacy regulator fined Uber $324 million for allegedly sending driver data to the US without proper safeguards.
Uber was fined by the Dutch privacy regulator over alleged unauthorized data transfer.
The fine relates to Uber's practice of sending sensitive information on drivers from Europe and retaining it on servers in the US without proper safeguards.
I can see more companies carefully considering whether to do business in the EU. Yes, they likely broke the law, but these are the sorts of laws that make it hard to do business.
Meta shut down Iranian-linked WhatsApp accounts targeting Trump and Biden staff, as well as other high-value targets, using social engineering tactics to steal credentials.
Iranian-linked hackers used social engineering tactics to target staff from the political campaigns of former president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden
The hacking group also targeted human rights activists in Israel and Iran, academics who focus on Iran, and other high-value targets
Meta contacted law enforcement in the U.S. about the attempted phishing against Biden and Trump due to the "heightened threat environment" of the upcoming election
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection's app for scheduling appointments by migrants has significant technical issues and security vulnerabilities, according to a report by the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Inspector General.
The CBP One app allows migrants to schedule U.S. entry appointments but suffers from technical glitches and security risks.
The report calls for improved data analysis and risk assessment in managing the app's functionality and security.
That is both unsurprising and awful. There really is no accountability for these kinds of mistakes or bad code either. There is no liability, or downside of any kind written into these contracts.
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cbps-migrant-app-faces-tech-glitches-security-flaws-report
The value of bounced checks in Iran surged to 1000 trillion rials ($1.7 billion) in July 2024, with nearly 10% of all issued checks being returned.
Iran's economic situation is worsening despite official claims of growth.
The country's GDP growth heavily relies on oil revenues and government expenditures.
Iran's oil production has nearly stalled, making it unlikely for the country's GDP to rise again through increased oil exports.
Everything is just fine in Iran.
Nippon Steel's planned acquisition of U.S. Steel for $15 billion is facing significant political and labor opposition in the United States, jeopardizing the merger. The deal, intended to strengthen Nippon Steel's position in a globally competitive market, has drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers and labor unions due to concerns over foreign ownership of a historic American company.
Nippon Steel aims to acquire U.S. Steel to enhance its market position.
Political and labor opposition in the U.S. threatens the completion of the merger.
The United Steelworkers union's lack of consultation during negotiations has fueled discontent.
Australia has enacted a law granting workers the legal right to disconnect from work communications outside of regular hours, effective immediately for medium and large companies. This law aims to improve work-life balance and mental health for employees, although it has met with mixed reactions from industry leaders who express concerns about its implementation.
Australia has introduced the legal right for workers to disconnect from out-of-hours work communications.
The law's implementation varies for companies based on their size, with larger companies affected now and smaller companies starting in 2025.
Industry leaders have raised concerns about the clarity and practicality of the new regulations.
This is a good idea from the employee’s perspective but makes many businesses impractical. It’s one of the reasons startups work—everyone is on call at all times.
Venture capitalists are aggressively pursuing investments in AI startups, leading to increased activity in secondary markets and raising the prices of special purpose vehicles (SPVs) that hold these shares. This trend reflects a speculative atmosphere around AI companies, where high premiums are being paid for indirect ownership stakes, potentially signaling the formation of a bubble within the market.
VCs are buying into SPVs that control shares of AI startups at inflated prices.
This trend indicates a speculative market environment that may lead to potential risks for investors.
I personally do not see most of these companies going anywhere, but that doesn’t stop VCs from pouring dumb money in. I think most of these companies end up going to zero. I also don’t see the use of LLMs as a significant moat. I think this is a big bubble. This is not to downplay the importance of AI; it’s not secret sauce or meaningfully defensible in how most of it is used in startups.
Global inflation trends show a persistent increase, with current rates still surpassing targeted levels set by central banks. Historical patterns indicate that inflation often correlates with government policies and spending, particularly during wartime and economic crises, leading to a long-term erosion of currency value.
Inflation rates continue to exceed central bank targets, impacting purchasing power.
Historical examples demonstrate that government spending and monetary policies are closely linked with inflation.
If the fed keeps printing money, there is more of it. If there is the same amount of things, or less, due to supply chain issues, the value of everything goes up because there is more money chasing fewer items. So, the same dollars you had in your bank account a year ago are now worth 10-20% less. It’s a hidden tax on everyone. It’s inflation.
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